Foreign exchange risk in a managed float regime: A case study of Pakistani rupee
The study examines applicability and performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models with respect to foreign exchange risk assessment within a managed float regime. Pakistani rupee offers an instructive case as it seems to manage its currency mainly against the US dollar, but to a lesser extent against the euro. We find that the distributional characteristics are quite different for the two currencies. We also find that the dynamic processes are remarkably different for the two exchange rates. The results indicate that compared with alternative competing models, the foreign exchange risk is better modeled using VaR based on Extreme Value Theory. Our findings underscore the importance of correctly specifying the return model in a dynamic framework.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zongrun Wang & Weitao Wu & Chao Chen & Yanju Zhou, 2010. "The exchange rate risk of Chinese yuan: Using VaR and ES based on extreme value theory," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 265-282.
- Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011.
"Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia,"
ADBI Working Papers
322, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23214, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "Management of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Asia," Governance Working Papers 23214, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Peter Julian A. Cayton & Dennis S. Mapa, Ph. D. & Mary Therese A. Lising, 2010. "Estimating Value-At-Risk (Var) Using TIVEX-POT Models," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(2), pages 152-170, December.
- Mapa, Dennis S. & Cayton, Peter Julian & Lising, Mary Therese, 2009. "Estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) using TiVEx-POT Models," MPRA Paper 25772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-8.
- Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Regimes: "Does What Countries Say Matter?"," IHEID Working Papers 07-2004, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 561-582, June.
- Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
- M. Ashraf Janjua, 2007. "Pakistan’s External Trade: Does Exchange Rate Misalignment Matter for Pakistan?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(Special E), pages 126-152, September.
- Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
- McNeil, Alexander J., 1997. "Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 117-137, May.
- de Jesús, Raúl & Ortiz, Edgar & Cabello, Alejandra, 2013. "Long run peso/dollar exchange rates and extreme value behavior: Value at Risk modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 139-152.
- Chee Wooi Hooy & Hui Boon Tan & Annuar Md Nassir, 2004. "Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276, 09. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:409-417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.