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Financial and insurance services trade and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Karamelikli, Huseyin

Abstract

Almost all studies in the trade literature have concentrated on the trade in goods. Recently, a study considered trade in two service industries (insurance and financial) between the U.S. and six of her trading partners and concluded that exchange rate changes have no significant effects on the U.S. service trade. Could such a finding be due to assuming the effects to be symmetric? We provide an affirmative answer by arguing and demonstrating that the effects of exchange rate on service trade could be asymmetric, which requires using nonlinear models. Once we estimate the nonlinear models, indeed we show that dollar depreciation and dollar appreciation have significant short-run and long-run effects on the U.S. inpayments from and outpayments to most of its partners in the two service industries. We attribute our new discoveries to the nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2021. "Financial and insurance services trade and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 358-367.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:358-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.09.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
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    1. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "China’s trade in services and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 747-757.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade in services; The U.S.; Real exchange rate; Asymmetric analysis; Nonlinear ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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