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SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19

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  • Basnarkov, Lasko

Abstract

We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of symptoms, or even with total absence of them. The model is theoretically analyzed in continuous-time compartmental version and discrete-time version on random regular graphs and complex networks. We show analytically that there are relationships between the epidemic thresholds and the equations for the susceptible populations at the endemic equilibrium in all three versions, which hold when the epidemic is weak. We provide theoretical arguments that eigenvector centrality of a node approximately determines its risk to become infected.

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  • Basnarkov, Lasko, 2021. "SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:142:y:2021:i:c:s0960077920307876
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Xia, Cheng-yi & Wang, Zhen & Sanz, Joaquin & Meloni, Sandro & Moreno, Yamir, 2013. "Effects of delayed recovery and nonuniform transmission on the spreading of diseases in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1577-1585.
    3. Nabi, Khondoker Nazmoon, 2020. "Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic: A data-driven analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    1. Schaum, A. & Bernal-Jaquez, R. & Alarcon Ramos, L., 2022. "Data-assimilation and state estimation for contact-based spreading processes using the ensemble kalman filter: Application to COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Das, Saikat & Bose, Indranil & Sarkar, Uttam Kumar, 2023. "Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 819-831.
    3. Tomovski, Igor & Basnarkov, Lasko & Abazi, Alajdin, 2022. "Endemic state equivalence between non-Markovian SEIS and Markovian SIS model in complex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 599(C).
    4. Basnarkov, Lasko & Tomovski, Igor & Sandev, Trifce & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2022. "Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Cerqueti, Roy & Deffains-Crapsky, Catherine & Storani, Saverio, 2022. "Similarity-based heterogeneity and cohesiveness of networked companies issuing minibonds," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Yong-Ju Jang & Min-Seung Kim & Chan-Ho Lee & Ji-Hye Choi & Jeong-Hee Lee & Sun-Hong Lee & Tae-Eung Sung, 2022. "A Novel Approach on Deep Learning—Based Decision Support System Applying Multiple Output LSTM-Autoencoder: Focusing on Identifying Variations by PHSMs’ Effect over COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-22, June.

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