IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v291y2021ics0306261921003159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Space cooling energy usage prediction based on utility data for residential buildings using machine learning methods

Author

Listed:
  • Feng, Yanxiao
  • Duan, Qiuhua
  • Chen, Xi
  • Yakkali, Sai Santosh
  • Wang, Julian

Abstract

The energy used for space cooling in residential buildings has a significant influence on household energy performance. This study aims to develop a user-friendly, infrastructure-free, and accurate prediction model based on large-scale utility datasets from anonymized volunteer homes located in three different climate zones in the US, along with the corresponding weather data and building information. Notably, several new weather- and building characteristics-related parameters were designed in the modeling procedure and tested to be useful for enhancing the model’s prediction performance. A few regression techniques were examined and compared through hyperparameter optimization and k-fold cross-validation. Subsequently, a workflow was also described for how to implement the developed model. The research results showed that the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model offered optimal performance, and the feature importance analysis also identified as well as ranked the key predictors to enhance the interpretability of this model. An R2 value of around 97% was obtained with that model on the whole dataset, while an R2 value of 92% was achieved with various subsets of the dataset through the cross-validation approach. The RMSE and RAE for this model were 0.294 and 0.153, respectively. The resultant model for predicting cooling energy consumption will facilitate homeowners better understanding their buildings’ performance levels with minimum input information and without additional hardware installations, ultimately aiding their decision making related to energy-saving strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Yanxiao & Duan, Qiuhua & Chen, Xi & Yakkali, Sai Santosh & Wang, Julian, 2021. "Space cooling energy usage prediction based on utility data for residential buildings using machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:291:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116814
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921003159
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116814?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Papakostas, K. & Kyriakis, N., 2005. "Heating and cooling degree-hours for Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 1873-1880.
    2. İsmail Hakkı ÇAVDAR & Vahid FARYAD, 2019. "New Design of a Supervised Energy Disaggregation Model Based on the Deep Neural Network for a Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Guo-Feng Fan & Yan-Hui Guo & Jia-Mei Zheng & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2019. "Application of the Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Anderson, Kyle & Song, Kwonsik & Lee, SangHyun & Krupka, Erin & Lee, Hyunsoo & Park, Moonseo, 2017. "Longitudinal analysis of normative energy use feedback on dormitory occupants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 623-639.
    5. Huiting Zheng & Jiabin Yuan & Long Chen, 2017. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD-LSTM Neural Networks with a Xgboost Algorithm for Feature Importance Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Li, Qiong & Meng, Qinglin & Cai, Jiejin & Yoshino, Hiroshi & Mochida, Akashi, 2009. "Applying support vector machine to predict hourly cooling load in the building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(10), pages 2249-2256, October.
    7. Khosrowpour, Ardalan & Jain, Rishee K. & Taylor, John E. & Peschiera, Gabriel & Chen, Jiayu & Gulbinas, Rimas, 2018. "A review of occupant energy feedback research: Opportunities for methodological fusion at the intersection of experimentation, analytics, surveys and simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 304-316.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Lingfeng & Xie, Haipeng & Wang, Xiaoyang & Bie, Zhaohong, 2023. "Privacy-preserving knowledge sharing for few-shot building energy prediction: A federated learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    2. Qin, Haosen & Yu, Zhen & Li, Tailu & Liu, Xueliang & Li, Li, 2023. "Energy-efficient heating control for nearly zero energy residential buildings with deep reinforcement learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    3. Sun, Jian & Liu, Gang & Sun, Boyang & Xiao, Gang, 2021. "Light-stacking strengthened fusion based building energy consumption prediction framework via variable weight feature selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    4. Massimiliano Manfren & Karla M. Gonzalez-Carreon & Patrick A. B. James, 2024. "Interpretable Data-Driven Methods for Building Energy Modelling—A Review of Critical Connections and Gaps," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, February.
    5. Sui, Zengguang & Sui, Yunren & Wu, Wei, 2022. "Multi-objective optimization of a microchannel membrane-based absorber with inclined grooves based on CFD and machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    6. Hyeon-Seok Kim & Hui-Sang Kim & Sun-Yong Choi, 2024. "Investigating the Impact of Agricultural, Financial, Economic, and Political Factors on Oil Forward Prices and Volatility: A SHAP Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Kesriklioğlu, Esma & Oktay, Erkan & Karaaslan, Abdulkerim, 2023. "Predicting total household energy expenditures using ensemble learning methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    9. Feng, Yanxiao & Liu, Shichao & Wang, Julian & Yang, Jing & Jao, Ying-Ling & Wang, Nan, 2022. "Data-driven personal thermal comfort prediction: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Song, Zhe & Cao, Sunliang & Yang, Hongxing, 2024. "An interpretable framework for modeling global solar radiation using tree-based ensemble machine learning and Shapley additive explanations methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chatzigeorgiou, I.M. & Andreou, G.T., 2021. "A systematic review on feedback research for residential energy behavior change through mobile and web interfaces," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Song, Kwonsik & Anderson, Kyle & Lee, SangHyun, 2020. "An energy-cyber-physical system for personalized normative messaging interventions: Identification and classification of behavioral reference groups," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    3. Batalla-Bejerano, Joan & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa & Villa-Arrieta, Manuel, 2020. "Smart meters and consumer behaviour: Insights from the empirical literature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Yu, Binbin & Li, Jianjing & Liu, Che & Sun, Bo, 2022. "A novel short-term electrical load forecasting framework with intelligent feature engineering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    5. Bingjie Jin & Guihua Zeng & Zhilin Lu & Hongqiao Peng & Shuxin Luo & Xinhe Yang & Haojun Zhu & Mingbo Liu, 2022. "Hybrid LSTM–BPNN-to-BPNN Model Considering Multi-Source Information for Forecasting Medium- and Long-Term Electricity Peak Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    6. Jiaan Zhang & Chenyu Liu & Leijiao Ge, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Model of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Based on MCCNN-TCN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
    7. İsmail Hakkı Çavdar & Vahit Feryad, 2021. "Efficient Design of Energy Disaggregation Model with BERT-NILM Trained by AdaX Optimization Method for Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    9. Song, Kwonsik & Kim, Sooyoung & Park, Moonseo & Lee, Hyun-Soo, 2017. "Energy efficiency-based course timetabling for university buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 394-405.
    10. Bernadeta Gołębiowska & Anna Bartczak & Mikołaj Czajkowski, 2020. "Energy Demand Management and Social Norms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Ijaz Ul Haq & Amin Ullah & Samee Ullah Khan & Noman Khan & Mi Young Lee & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik, 2021. "Sequential Learning-Based Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Residential and Commercial Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, March.
    12. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    14. Wei, Nan & Li, Changjun & Peng, Xiaolong & Li, Yang & Zeng, Fanhua, 2019. "Daily natural gas consumption forecasting via the application of a novel hybrid model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 358-368.
    15. Ahmad, Muhammad Waseem & Mourshed, Monjur & Rezgui, Yacine, 2018. "Tree-based ensemble methods for predicting PV power generation and their comparison with support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 465-474.
    16. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    17. Gong, Mingju & Zhao, Yin & Sun, Jiawang & Han, Cuitian & Sun, Guannan & Yan, Bo, 2022. "Load forecasting of district heating system based on Informer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    18. Abdulelah Alkesaiberi & Fouzi Harrou & Ying Sun, 2022. "Efficient Wind Power Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-24, March.
    19. Alexandros Menelaos Tzortzis & Sotiris Pelekis & Evangelos Spiliotis & Evangelos Karakolis & Spiros Mouzakitis & John Psarras & Dimitris Askounis, 2023. "Transfer Learning for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: A Case Study on European National Electricity Demand Time Series," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, December.
    20. Kwonsik Song & Kyle Anderson & SangHyun Lee & Kaitlin T. Raimi & P. Sol Hart, 2020. "Non-Invasive Behavioral Reference Group Categorization Considering Temporal Granularity and Aggregation Level of Energy Use Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-21, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:291:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.