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The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile

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  • Pincheira Brown, Pablo
  • Rubio Hurtado, Hernán

Abstract

This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile. The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pincheira Brown, Pablo & Rubio Hurtado, Hernán, 2015. "The low predictive power of simple Phillips curves in Chile," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:39619
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    Cited by:

    1. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
    2. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    3. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Alberto Naudon & Joaquín Vial, 2016. "The evolution of inflation in Chile since 2000," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 93-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Selaive, Jorge & Nolazco, Jose Luis, 2019. "Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1060-1071.
    6. Felipe Leal & Carlos Molina & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Proyección de la Inflación en Chile con Métodos de Machine Learning," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 860, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz, 2016. "Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile," IMF Working Papers 2016/129, International Monetary Fund.

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