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Crisis monetaria, dolarización y tipo de cambio

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  • Batista, Paulo Nogueira

Abstract

El propósito de este ensayo es contribuir al debate sobre las políticas de estabilización en condiciones de alta inflación, teniendo en cuenta la experiencia brasileña y la de algunos otros países, y particularmente las crisis monetarias europeas de los años veinte y la estabilización de la moneda argentina en 1991/1992. En el trabajo se comentan primero ciertas peculiaridades de las situaciones de alta inflación, destacando la inviabilidad de seguir la secuencia de medidas recomendadas para situaciones de desequilibrio moderado. Luego se critican aspectos de la política económica adoptada en Brasil en 1991/1992 y se muestra su incapacidad para romper un círculo vicioso en el cual la inestabilidad monetaria y el desajuste fiscal se alimentan recíprocamente. Se afirma que la estabilización puede llevar en determinadas circunstancias a una regresión, a un sistema monetario de tipo más primitivo, es decir, al abandono de la moneda fiduciaria pura, basada exclusivamente en la autorización y sanción del Estado nacional. Se examina la política antiinflacionaria en curso en Argentina desde abril de 1991, destacando sus puntos fuertes y algunos de sus problemas; se describe el programa argentino como una regresión a un modelo monetario semejante al antiguo patrón oro, en que el dólar ocupa el lugar de "reliquia atávica". En la sección final se examinan las consecuencias de la acentuada valorización externa de la moneda argentina y algunas características de los ciclos económicos típicos de las estabilizaciones con ancla cambiaria y se analizan también las dificultades que se oponen a la aplicación en -Brasil de un programa semejante al argentino.

Suggested Citation

  • Batista, Paulo Nogueira, 1993. "Crisis monetaria, dolarización y tipo de cambio," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11901
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    1. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Gerd Schwartz, 1992. "Currency Substitution: The Recent Experience of Bolivia," IMF Working Papers 1992/065, International Monetary Fund.
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