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Preventing crime through selective incapacitation

Author

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  • Ben Vollaard

Abstract

Making the length of a prison sentence conditional on an individual’s offense history is shown to be a powerful way of preventing crime. Under a law adopted in the Netherlands in 2001, prolific offenders could be sentenced to a prison term that was some ten times longer than usual. We exploit quasi-experimental variation in the moment of introduction and the frequency of application across 12 urban areas to identify the effect. We find the sentence enhancements to have dramatically reduced theft rates. The size of the crime-reducing effect is found to be subject to sharply diminishing returns.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ben Vollaard, 2013. "Preventing crime through selective incapacitation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 262-284, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:123:y:2013:i:567:p:262-284
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/
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    Cited by:

    1. Logan, Matthew W. & Morgan, Mark A. & Long, Joshua S. & Hazelwood, Andrea & Bacigalupo, James, 2022. "More similar than different? Examining prison infractions and recidivism among female and male white-collar offenders," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Hennebel, Veerle & Simper, Richard & Verschelde, Marijn, 2017. "Is there a prison size dilemma? An empirical analysis of output-specific economies of scale," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 306-321.
    3. Jansson, Joakim & Petterson-Lidbom, Per & Priks, Mikael & Tyrefors, Björn, 2025. "Sentence Length and Recidivism: Court Rulings based on BAC," Working Paper Series 1536, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    4. Steven Raphael, 2014. "The New Scarlet Letter? Negotiating the U.S. Labor Market with a Criminal Record," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number nsc.
    5. Paolo Buonanno & Steven Raphael, 2013. "Incarceration and Incapacitation: Evidence from the 2006 Italian Collective Pardon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2437-2465, October.
    6. Magnus Lofstrom & Steven Raphael, 2016. "Crime, the Criminal Justice System, and Socioeconomic Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 103-126, Spring.
    7. Chan, Jason & Kim, Jin-Hyuk & Wagman, Liad, 2022. "State versus federal wiretap orders: A look at the data," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Kevin T. Schnepel, 2016. "Economics of Incarceration," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 49(4), pages 515-523, December.
    9. François Bonnet, 2025. "Less Eligibility, Welfare, and Punishment: The Econometric Evidence," Post-Print halshs-05165960, HAL.
    10. Luca Zanin & Rosalba Radice & Giampiero Marra, 2013. "Estimating the Effect of Perceived Risk of Crime on Social Trust in the Presence of Endogeneity Bias," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 523-547, November.
    11. Laura Jaitman, 2019. "Frontiers in the economics of crime: lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-36, December.
    12. Cepeda-Francese, Camilo A. & Ramírez-Álvarez, Aurora A., 2023. "Reforming justice under a security crisis: The case of the criminal justice reform in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    13. O’Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2015. "Urban Crime," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1519-1621, Elsevier.
    14. John J. Donohue & Peter Siegelman, 2024. "Allocating Resources Among Prisons and Preschool: An Analysis of the New Evidence," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 714(1), pages 114-133, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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