IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-26-00553.html

Economic growth and female labor force participation in India: Evidence from ARDL and Toda–Yamamoto Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Nilu Farhat

    (MDDM College B.R.A Bihar University Muzaffarpur, India)

Abstract

This study examines the long-run relationship between economic growth and female labor force participation (FLFPR) in India over the period 1960–2025. To address historical data gaps and major structural breaks, the analysis utilizes an interpolated FLFPR series alongside structural dummies. Adapting to the mixed orders of integration present in the dataset, we apply an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration, followed by the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality framework. Furthermore, the Lind and Mehlum (2010) three-step procedure is applied for a rigorous robustness check of non-linearity. The results confirm that the variables are cointegrated, indicating a stable long-run equilibrium. Crucially, the ARDL framework and SLM test mathematically validate Goldin's (1994) classical feminization U-shape in the long run. However, instead of a realized rebound, the empirical evidence shows India's female labor market is currently navigating the structural "trough" (the bottom) of the U-curve. However, the Toda-Yamamoto analysis reveals no statistically significant bidirectional causality between GDP and FLFPR. Ultimately, these findings suggest that while a long-run U-shaped trajectory exists, India's female labor market dynamics are shaped more heavily by underlying structural composition, educational transitions, and regime shifts rather than being strictly driven by aggregate macroeconomic growth alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Nilu Farhat, 2026. "Economic growth and female labor force participation in India: Evidence from ARDL and Toda–Yamamoto Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 46(2), pages 528-539.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-26-00553
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2026/Volume46/EB-26-V46-I2-P43.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. BILAN Yuriy & OMRAN Emad Attia Mohamed, 2022. "Female Labour Force Participation and the Economic Development in Egypt," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Bucharest Economic Academy, issue 01, March.
    2. Rahul Lahoti & Hema Swaminathan, 2016. "Economic Development and Women's Labor Force Participation in India," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 168-195, April.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Jo Thori Lind & Halvor Mehlum, 2010. "With or Without U? The Appropriate Test for a U‐Shaped Relationship," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 109-118, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Sector value addition, technology and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 868-877.
    2. Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2020. "Investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Kenya: A multivariate analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Punzo, Lionello F., 2021. "The Kuznets curve of the rich," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    4. Abdulkadir Rafindadi & Zarinah Yusof, 2015. "Do the dynamics of financial development spur economic growth in Nigeria’s contemporal growth struggle? A fact beyond the figures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 365-384, January.
    5. Haytem Ahmed Troug & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "The Relationship between Banking Competition and Stability in Developing Countries: The Case of Libya," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 772-779.
    6. Nimet Melis Esenyel İçen, 2024. "Investigation of Parabolic Relationship Between Financial Development and Income Inequality using U Test: Analysis of Financial Curve in Türkiye," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 355-369, July.
    7. Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi & Zarinah Yusof, 2015. "Are Linear and Nonlinear Exchange Rate Exposures Aggravating Agents to Corporate Bankruptcy in Nigeria? New Evidence from the U Test Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 212-229.
    8. Syed Ali Abbas & Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan & Saroja Selvanathan, 2023. "The foreign aid and remittance nexus: Evidence from South Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2032-2053, July.
    9. Selçuk Akçay, 2022. "Remittances and income inequality in the Philippines," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 36(1), pages 30-47, May.
    10. Usama, Al-mulali & Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Salahuddin, Mohammad, 2020. "The prominence of renewable and non-renewable electricity generation on the environmental Kuznets curve: A case study of Ethiopia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    11. Kazi Sohag & Rawshan Begum & Sharifah Abdullah, 2015. "Dynamic impact of household consumption on its CO 2 emissions in Malaysia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 1031-1043, October.
    12. Mohamed Douch, 2025. "FDI, defense spending, and economic prosperity," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(1), pages 86-118, January.
    13. Begum, Rawshan Ara & Sohag, Kazi & Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed & Jaafar, Mokhtar, 2015. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic and population growth in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 594-601.
    14. Najid Ahmad & Liangsheng Du & Xian-Liang Tian & Jianlin Wang, 2019. "Chinese growth and dilemmas: modelling energy consumption, CO2 emissions and growth in China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 315-338, January.
    15. Jorge A. Acevedo-Ramos & Carlos F. Valencia & Carlos D. Valencia, 2023. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Colombia: Impact of Economic Development on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecological Footprint," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    16. Karasoy, Alper, 2022. "Is innovative technology a solution to Japan's long-run energy insecurity? Dynamic evidence from the linear and nonlinear methods," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Bruce Morley, 2009. "A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run," International Econometric Review (IER), Economic Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, September.
    18. Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2021. "Does economic growth respond to electricity consumption asymmetrically in Bangladesh? The implication for environmental sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    19. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J4 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-26-00553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.