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Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Surajit Deb

    (Ram Lal Anand College (Evening), University of Delhi, Benite Zuarez Road, New Delhi 110021, India)

Abstract

This paper examines the presence of stochastic trend in various domestic terms of trade (TOT) series in India. Results suggest that underlying data generating processes of TOT are non-stationary. Subsequently, we investigate the presence of long-run relationship(s) in the agricultural supply response model through cointegration analysis. The error correction estimates suggest that short-run output adjustments in agriculture are not related to TOT changes in a causal manner. However, short-run deviations in TOT create error-correction in the long-term output adjustments through changes in technology (irrigation). This may imply that agricultural growth can respond better if price incentives are combined with investments in irrigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Surajit Deb, 2005. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 40(1), pages 65-92, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:40:y:2005:i:1:p:65-92
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bingxin Yu & Shenggen Fan, 2011. "Rice production response in Cambodia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 437-450, May.
    2. Amey Sapre, 2014. "Madhya Pradesh: Does Agriculture Determine the State’s Growth Trajectory?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(1), pages 39-57, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Domestic terms of trade; Agricultural supply response; Unit root; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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