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Regionale Kriminalitätsbelastung und Kriminalitätsfurcht: Befunde der WISIND-Studie

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  • Mathias Bug
  • Martin Kroh
  • Kristina Meier

Abstract

Many people are afraid of falling prey to crime. The present report investigates the extent to which this fear is in line with the actual regional crime rates. This analysis is based on data from a comprehensive database on the fear of crime, combined with police crime statistics (specifically, adjusted crime statistics which factor in the "dark figure" of unreported crime). No evidence was found to support the (occasionally voiced) contention that the fear of falling prey to crime is irrational in many cases and not representative of the actual level of safety within a given region. In fact, our data shows a clear statistical correlation between regional crime rates and the fear of crime, both of which are more pronounced in the north of Germany than in the south, for instance. The inclusion of cybercrime in crime statistics, however, has meant that the former, higher crime rates and greater fear of crime often recordedin urban areas as opposed to rural regions are no longer as pronounced. Viele Bürger fürchten Opfer einer Straftat zu werden. Der Frage, inwieweit diese Furcht sich mit der regionalen Kriminalitätsbelastung deckt, versucht dieser Beitrag nachzugehen. Die Untersuchung basiert auf einer umfangreichen Datengrundlage zu Kriminalitätsfurcht und verbindet diese mit polizeilichen Daten zur Kriminalitätsbelastung (genauer: die um ihr Dunkelfeld korrigierte polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik). Die gelegentlich geäußerte Vermutung, die Furcht der Opferwerdung sei vielfach irrational und decke sich nicht mit der faktischen Sicherheit in einer Region lässt sich nicht bestätigen: In den Daten zeigt sich ein deutlicher statistischer Zusammenhang zwischen regionaler Kriminalitätsbelastung und Kriminalitätsfurcht. Beispielsweise sind beide im Norden Deutschlands höher als im Süden. Durch die Berücksichtigung von Delikten aus dem Bereich der Cyberkriminalität verschwindet jedoch tendenziell die früher oftmals dokumentierte höhere Kriminalitätsbelastung in städtischen gegenüber ländlichen Regionen.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Bug & Martin Kroh & Kristina Meier, 2015. "Regionale Kriminalitätsbelastung und Kriminalitätsfurcht: Befunde der WISIND-Studie," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(12), pages 259-269.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:82-12-1
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    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.498286.de/15-12-1.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    security; crime; indicator; fear; fear of crime; home affairs; police; inner security; threat; crime statistics; police statistics; federalism;

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H79 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other
    • H80 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - General

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