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Intuitive numbers guide decisions

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  • Peters, Ellen
  • Slovic, Paul
  • Västfjäll, Daniel
  • Mertz, C. K.

Abstract

Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills) consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations) also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a) perceived differences between numbers, b) the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c) the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.

Suggested Citation

  • Peters, Ellen & Slovic, Paul & Västfjäll, Daniel & Mertz, C. K., 2008. "Intuitive numbers guide decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(8), pages 619-635, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i:8:p:619-635_3
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:330-344 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John R. Doyle, 2013. "Survey of time preference, delay discounting models," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(2), pages 116-135, March.
    3. Roger, Tristan & Roger, Patrick & Willinger, Marc, 2022. "Number sense, trading decisions and mispricing: An experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Stephan Dickert & Janet Kleber & Ellen Peters & Paul Slovic, 2011. "Numeracy as a precursor to pro-social behavior: The impact of numeracy and presentation format on the cognitive mechanisms underlying donation decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 6(7), pages 638-650, October.
    5. Nicolas Eber & Patrick Roger & Tristan Roger, 2024. "Finance and intelligence: An overview of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 503-554, April.
    6. Luke F. Rinne & Michele M. M. Mazzocco, 2013. "Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 330-344, May.
    7. Sobkow, Agata & Olszewska, Angelika & Traczyk, Jakub, 2020. "Multiple numeric competencies predict decision outcomes beyond fluid intelligence and cognitive reflection," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Kazumi Shimizu & Daisuke Udagawa, 2018. "Is human life worth peanuts? Risk attitude changes in accordance with varying stakes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-12, August.
    9. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:5:p:441-448 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ye, Jun & Zhou, Kun & Chen, Rui, 2021. "Numerical or verbal Information: The effect of comparative information in social comparison on prosocial behavior," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 198-211.
    11. Métais, Carole & Roger, Tristan, 2022. "Are retail investors less aggressive on small price stocks?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    12. Asmus Leth Olsen, 2013. "Leftmost-digit-bias in an enumerated public sector? An experiment on citizens' judgment of performance information," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(3), pages 365-371, May.
    13. Carmen Keller & Christina Kreuzmair & Rebecca Leins-Hess & Michael Siegrist, 2014. "Numeric and graphic risk information processing of high and low numerates in the intuitive and deliberative decision modes: An eye-tracker study," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(5), pages 420-432, September.
    14. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:2:p:116-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:cup:judgdm:v:6:y:2011:i:7:p:638-650 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. André Mata, 2016. "Proportion dominance in valuing lives: The role of deliberative thinking," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(5), pages 441-448, September.
    17. repec:cup:judgdm:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:365-371 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:5:p:420-432 is not listed on IDEAS

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