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Performance Attribution using an APT with Prespecified Macrofactors and Time-Varying Risk Premia and Betas

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  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence
  • Lalancette, Simon
  • To, Minh Chau

Abstract

This paper assesses the selection and timing abilities of 130 equity mutual funds using a conditional APT model with specified macrofactors, and time-varying risk premia and betas. For all fund categories based on investment objectives, a significant proportion of the funds exhibits negative abnormal asset selection performance based on the unconditional Jensen (1968) alpha, and a reduced proportion of the funds in each category attempts to time the realizations of the macrofactors (including those captured by the residual market factor). The average selection performance of the mutual funds improves and the proportion of funds attempting to time macrofactor realizations declines when measured using the asset selection and factor-timing models with time-varying risk premia and betas.

Suggested Citation

  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Lalancette, Simon & To, Minh Chau, 1997. "Performance Attribution using an APT with Prespecified Macrofactors and Time-Varying Risk Premia and Betas," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 205-224, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:32:y:1997:i:02:p:205-224_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Chung, Richard & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 1997. "Robustness of selectivity and timing measures of performance based on quadratic and dummy variable regressions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 257-262.
    2. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2017. "Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 661-695, October.
    3. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," Working Papers hal-04141877, HAL.
    4. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 2009. "The dynamics of U.S. equity risk premia: lessons from professionals'view," Working Papers hal-04140869, HAL.
    5. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Chaibi, Anis & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Performance of Canadian hybrid mutual funds," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 124-147.
    6. Evangelos Karanikas & George Leledakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2006. "Structural Changes in Expected Stock Returns Relationships: Evidence from ASE," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1610-1628, November.
    7. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    8. Margarita María Mosso Martínez & Francisco López-Herrera, 2019. "Relación de equilibrio en la Morosidad y el Deterioro de la cartera de hipotecas bursatilizadas en México," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 5(1), pages 3-31, December.
    9. Sebastian Bunnenberg & Martin Rohleder & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2019. "Jensen's alpha and the market‐timing puzzle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 234-255, April.
    10. Deaves, Richard, 2004. "Data-conditioning biases, performance, persistence and flows: The case of Canadian equity funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 673-694, March.
    11. Margarita María Mosso Martínez & Francisco López-Herrera, 2019. "Relación de equilibrio en la Morosidad y el Deterioro de la cartera de hipotecas bursatilizadas en México," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 5(1), pages 3-31, December.
    12. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 1986. "Ex-ante risk premia in the US stock market: analysing experts' behaviour at the individual level," Post-Print halshs-00172883, HAL.
    13. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2005. "Portfolio performance measurement using APM-free kernel models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 623-659, March.
    14. Ferson, Wayne E., 2013. "Investment Performance: A Review and Synthesis," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 969-1010, Elsevier.
    15. Georges Prat & David Le Bris, 2019. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon: what do the French secular data say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Ammann, Manuel & Fischer, Sebastian & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Factor exposure variation and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 20-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    17. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    18. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
    19. Juan Carlos Matallin & Luisa Nieto, 2002. "Mutual funds as an alternative to direct stock investment: A cointegration approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 743-750.
    20. Chung, Richard & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2000. "Market timing using strategists' and analysts' forecasts of S&P 500 earnings per share," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 125-144, 00.
    21. Frank Coggins & Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Michel Gendron, 2009. "Mutual Fund Daily Conditional Performance," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 95-122, June.
    22. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    23. Evangelos Karanikas & George Leledakis & Elias Tzavalis, 2006. "Structural Changes in Expected Stock Returns Relationships: Evidence from ASE," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1610-1628, November.

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