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Voting One Issue at a Time: The Question of Voter Forecasts

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  • Enelow, James M.
  • Hinich, Melvin J.

Abstract

When issues (i.e., dimensions) are voted on one at a time, a voter whose preferences are not separable across issues must forecast the outcome of later issues in order to know how to vote in the present. This is the problem of expectations. In this article, we develop a general theory designed to handle this problem. Assuming that voters are risk averse and maximize expected utility, we demonstrate that a random variable forecast of how later issues will be decided reduces to a point forecast, which is the mean of the multidimensional random variable. We also show that single-peaked preferences are induced on each issue, and consequently there exists an equilibrium across issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Enelow, James M. & Hinich, Melvin J., 1983. "Voting One Issue at a Time: The Question of Voter Forecasts," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 435-445, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:77:y:1983:i:02:p:435-445_24
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    Cited by:

    1. Gennaro Amendola & Luigi Marengo & Simona Settepanella, 2012. "Decidability and manipulability in social choice," LEM Papers Series 2012/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2010. "On the distributional properties of household consumption expenditures: the case of Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 717-741, June.
    3. James Cochran & David Curry & Rajesh Radhakrishnan & Jon Pinnell, 2014. "Political engineering: optimizing a U.S. Presidential candidate’s platform," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 215(1), pages 63-87, April.
    4. Luigi Marengo & Simona Settepanella, 2010. "Social choice among complex objects," LEM Papers Series 2010/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Luigi Marengo & Davide Pirino & Simona Settepanella & Akimichi Takemura, 2012. "Decidability in complex social choices," LEM Papers Series 2012/12, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Enriqueta Aragonès, 2007. "Government formation in a two dimensional policy space," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 35(2), pages 151-184, January.
    7. James Enelow, 1986. "The stability of logrolling: An expectations approach," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 285-294, January.
    8. Luigi Marengo & Simona Settepanella & Yan X. Zhang, 2021. "Towards a unified aggregation framework for preferences and judgments," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 21-44, April.
    9. Luigi Maregno & Corrado Pasquali, 2008. "A computational voting model," LEM Papers Series 2008/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    10. Luigi Marengo & Corrado Pasquali, 2011. "The construction of choice: a computational voting model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(2), pages 139-156, November.
    11. Enriqueta Aragonès, 2005. "A Model of Government Formation with a Two Dimensional Policy Space," Working Papers 238, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Epple, Dennis & Romano, Richard E, 1996. "Public Provision of Private Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 57-84, February.
    13. James Green-Armytage, 2015. "Direct voting and proxy voting," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 190-220, June.

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