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Comment definir un taux de change d'equilibre pour les pays emergents ?


  • Virginie Coudert


Il existe plusieurs methodes pour apprecier si un taux de change est a son "bon niveau". La parite de pouvoir d'achat (PPA), en niveau et en evolution, constitue une reference souvent utilisee. Mais elle n'est guere appropriee a l'etude des pays emergents, qui ont des niveaux de prix beaucoup plus faibles que les pays developpes. Il est souhaitable de corriger la norme de PPA par l'effet dit "Balassa", qui tient compte des differences de productivite entre les secteurs. Cet effet explique le plus faible niveau de prix dans les pays developpes et considere normale une certaine appreciation du taux de change reel au cours du processus de developpement.

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert, 1999. "Comment definir un taux de change d'equilibre pour les pays emergents ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 77, pages 45-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:1999-1tc

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    1. Balázs Égert, 2012. "Dutch diease in the post-soviet countries of central and south-west Asia: How contagious is it?," Post-Print hal-01385841, HAL.
    2. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2006. "Tunisia: Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 3129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    4. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    5. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.
    6. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries : can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? : A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Meleck, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 739, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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    9. Ngongang, Elie, 2011. "Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on the Trade of Industrial Products in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1975 to 2007," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 7(1-2).
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    11. Oomes, Nienke, 2005. "Maintaining competitiveness under equilibrium real appreciation: The case of Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-204, June.
    12. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
    14. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
    15. Babacar XSENE, 2005. "Impact du fardeau virtuel de la dette sur le taux de change réel d'équilibre des pays en développement," Macroeconomics 0501014, EconWPA.
    16. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
    17. Balázs Égert & Rafañ Kierzenkowski & Rafañ Kierzenkowski & Rafañ Kierzenkowski, 2005. "Asymmetric Fluctuation Bands in the ERM and ERM II : Lessons and Challenges for New EU Member States of Central and Eastern Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 82-115, January.
    18. Claude Aline Zobo, 2014. "European Crisis and Sustainability of the CFA Franc Fixity to Euro," The Journal of European Theoretical and Applied Studies, The Center for European Studies at Kirklareli University - Turkey, vol. 2(2), pages 53-71.
    19. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00640 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean


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