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ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Öffnungen und Lieferengpässen

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Przemyslaw Brandt
  • Christian Grimme
  • Max Lay
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Sebastian Link
  • Manuel Menkhoff
  • Sascha Möhrle
  • Ann-Christin Rathje
  • Pauliina Sandqvist
  • Radek Šauer
  • Marc Stöckli
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Seit April dieses Jahres hat sich das Infektionsgeschehen mit dem Coronavirus in Deutschland deutlich verlangsamt und der Fortschritt bei den Impfungen gegen Covid­19 an Tempo gewonnen. Damit dürften die bestehenden wirtschaftlichen Beschränkungen allmählich aufgehoben werden, so dass einer vollständigen konjunkturellen Erholung beim Handel und in den kontaktintensiven Dienstleistungsbereichen bis zum Ende des Jahres nichts mehr im Wege steht. Kurzfristig dämpfend wirken die Engpässe bei der Lieferung von Vorprodukten. Somit dürfte sich der industrielle Boom im weiteren Verlauf etwas abkühlen, auch weil die kräftigen Anstiege der Erzeugerpreise die Nachfrage bremsen. Insgesamt dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr um 3,3% und im kommenden Jahr um 4,3% zulegen. Im Vergleich zur ifo Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2021 wurde die Wachstumsrate für das Jahr 2021 um 0,4 Prozentpunkte gesenkt und für das kommende Jahr um 1,1 Prozentpunkte angehoben.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Wollmershäuser & Przemyslaw Brandt & Christian Grimme & Max Lay & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer & Marc, 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Spannungsfeld zwischen Öffnungen und Lieferengpässen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(Sonderaus), pages 01-52, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:74:y:2021:i:sonderausgabe:p:01-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Florian Eckert & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan Neuwirth & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2019: Deutsche Konjunktur stabilisiert sich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(24), pages 27-89, December.
    2. Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "On the Plausibility of Consumption Forecasts by Means of Input-Output Accounting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(04), pages 54-56, April.
    3. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer , 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft taumelt in die dritte Coronawelle," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(09), pages 01-13, March.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Manuel Menkhoff & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqv, 2020. "ifo Economic Forecast Winter 2020: The Coronavirus Strikes Back – Another Lockdown Slows the Economy for a Second Time," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(Sonderaus), pages 03-61, December.
    5. Bodnár, Katalin & Le Roux, Julien & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Szörfi, Béla, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on potential output in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Pauliina Sandqvist & Radek Šauer , 2021. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Frühjahr 2021: Deutsche Wirtschaft taumelt in die dritte Coronawelle," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(9), March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Timo Wollmershäuser & Stefan Ederer & Friederike Fourné & Christian Glocker & Max Lay & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Joachim Ragnitz & Ann-Christin Rathje & Radek Šauer & Stefan S, 2022. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2022: Inflation und Rezession," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0(Sonderaus), December.
    2. Niels Gillmann & Jannik Nauerth & Joachim Ragnitz & Jannik André Nauerth, 2021. "ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony Summer 2021: East German Economy Recovers," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 28(04), pages 18-23, August.
    3. Radek Šauer, 2022. "ifo DSGE Model 2.0," ifo Working Paper Series 366, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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