IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/caa/jnlswr/v19y2024i1id107-2023-swr.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysing the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration in a climate-sensitive region: Example of Central Anatolia (Türkiye)

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammet Azlak
  • Levent Şaylan

    (Meteorological Engineering Department, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye)

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main components of the hydrological cycle and plays a crucial role for water resources. It is sensitive to climate change, and therefore, estimating ET under changing climatic conditions is essential in comprehending hydrological processes, particularly in agricultural water management. In this study, the impact of climate change on ET in the Central Anatolia region of Türkiye was assessed. For this purpose, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios based on two Earth System Models, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR, were employed for three future time periods: 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2098. As a baseline period for comparison, the time interval spanning 1980-2000 was considered. ET values were computed by using the Penman-Monteith equation, recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization, along with five widely utilized methods. The study revealed a consistent increase in ET depending on the employed methods for the future period in response to climate change. The average of the ET amounts for the region was determined as 1089 mm for the reference period 1980-2000. As the average of the six methods utilized, amounts estimated by HadGEM RCP4.5, HadGEM RCP8.5, MPI RCP4.5, and MPI RCP8.5 models for the future period were obtained as 1 199, 1 285, 1 166, and 1 248 mm, respectively. Considering the results, it is found that the ET amount in the Central Anatolia region of Türkiye will increase by up to 11% by the end of this century under the optimistic RCP 4.5 scenario and by up to 19% under the extreme RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings regarding increased evapotranspiration play a significant role in water resource management and agricultural production planning in the region, holding crucial implications for sustainable agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammet Azlak & Levent Şaylan, 2024. "Analysing the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration in a climate-sensitive region: Example of Central Anatolia (Türkiye)," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 19(1), pages 64-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlswr:v:19:y:2024:i:1:id:107-2023-swr
    DOI: 10.17221/107/2023-SWR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://swr.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/107/2023-SWR.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://swr.agriculturejournals.cz/doi/10.17221/107/2023-SWR.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17221/107/2023-SWR?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kheir, Ahmed M.S. & Alrajhi, Abdullah A. & Ghoneim, Adel M. & Ali, Esmat F. & Magrashi, Ali & Zoghdan, Medhat G. & Abdelkhalik, Sedhom A.M. & Fahmy, Ahmed E. & Elnashar, Abdelrazek, 2021. "Modeling deficit irrigation-based evapotranspiration optimizes wheat yield and water productivity in arid regions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    2. Saadi, Sameh & Todorovic, Mladen & Tanasijevic, Lazar & Pereira, Luis S. & Pizzigalli, Claudia & Lionello, Piero, 2015. "Climate change and Mediterranean agriculture: Impacts on winter wheat and tomato crop evapotranspiration, irrigation requirements and yield," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 103-115.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cameira, Maria do Rosário & Rodrigo, Isabel & Garção, Andreia & Neves, Manuela & Ferreira, Antónia & Paredes, Paula, 2024. "Linking participatory approach and rapid appraisal methods to select potential innovations in collective irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    2. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    3. Peter Addo Amarkai & Sinan Süheri, 2024. "Comparative Evaluation of Crop Evapotranspiration Estimation Methods in a Semi-Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-20, December.
    4. Tassadit Kourat & Dalila Smadhi & Brahim Mouhouche & Nerdjes Gourari & M. G. Mostofa Amin & Christopher Robin Bryant, 2021. "Assessment of future climate change impact on rainfed wheat yield in the semi-arid Eastern High Plain of Algeria using a crop model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2175-2203, July.
    5. Kamran, Muhammad & Yan, Zhengang & Chang, Shenghua & Ning, Jiao & Lou, Shanning & Ahmad, Irshad & Ghani, Muhammad Usman & Arif, Muhammad & El Sabagh, Ayman & Hou, Fujiang, 2023. "Interactive effects of reduced irrigation and nitrogen fertilization on resource use efficiency, forage nutritive quality, yield, and economic benefits of spring wheat in the arid region of Northwest ," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    6. El Chami, D. & Daccache, A., 2015. "Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 19-25.
    7. Yang, Chenyao & Fraga, Helder & van Ieperen, Wim & Santos, João A., 2020. "Assessing the impacts of recent-past climatic constraints on potential wheat yield and adaptation options under Mediterranean climate in southern Portugal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    8. Minhas, P.S. & Ramos, Tiago B. & Ben-Gal, Alon & Pereira, Luis S., 2020. "Coping with salinity in irrigated agriculture: Crop evapotranspiration and water management issues," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    9. Paredes, Paula & Rodrigues, Gonçalo C. & Cameira, Maria do Rosário & Torres, Maria Odete & Pereira, Luis S., 2017. "Assessing yield, water productivity and farm economic returns of malt barley as influenced by the sowing dates and supplemental irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 132-143.
    10. Li, Xiaojie & Kang, Shaozhong & Li, Fusheng & Jiang, Xuelian & Tong, Ling & Ding, Risheng & Li, Sien & Du, Taisheng, 2016. "Applying segmented Jarvis canopy resistance into Penman-Monteith model improves the accuracy of estimated evapotranspiration in maize for seed production with film-mulching in arid area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 314-324.
    11. Alina Petronela Alexoaei & Valentin Cojanu & Cristiana-Ioana Coman, 2021. "On Sustainable Consumption: The Implications of Trade in Virtual Water for the EU’s Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    12. Aguilera, Eduardo & Díaz-Gaona, Cipriano & García-Laureano, Raquel & Reyes-Palomo, Carolina & Guzmán, Gloria I. & Ortolani, Livia & Sánchez-Rodríguez, Manuel & Rodríguez-Estévez, Vicente, 2020. "Agroecology for adaptation to climate change and resource depletion in the Mediterranean region. A review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    13. Abdul Latief A. Al-Ghzawi & Yahya Bani Khalaf & Zakaria I. Al-Ajlouni & Nisreen A. AL-Quraan & Iyad Musallam & Nabeel Bani Hani, 2018. "The Effect of Supplemental Irrigation on Canopy Temperature Depression, Chlorophyll Content, and Water Use Efficiency in Three Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L. and T. durum Desf.) Varieties Grown in Dry R," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-23, May.
    14. Tita, Davide & Mahdi, Karrar & Devkota, Krishna Prasad & Devkota, Mina, 2025. "Climate change and agronomic management: Addressing wheat yield gaps and sustainability challenges in the Mediterranean and MENA regions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    15. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    16. Isabel Dinis, 2023. "Exploring the Drivers of Microregional Agricultural Labor Productivity: Empirical Insights from Portugal," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, November.
    17. Cortignani, Raffaele & Dell’Unto, Davide & Dono, Gabriele, 2021. "Paths of adaptation to climate change in major Italian agricultural areas: Effectiveness and limits in supporting the profitability of farms," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    18. Paredes, Paula & D’Agostino, Daniela & Assif, Mahdi & Todorovic, Mladen & Pereira, Luis S., 2018. "Assessing potato transpiration, yield and water productivity under various water regimes and planting dates using the FAO dual Kc approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 11-24.
    19. Villani, Lorenzo & Castelli, Giulio & Yimer, Estifanos Addisu & Nkwasa, Albert & Penna, Daniele & van Griensven, Ann & Bresci, Elena, 2024. "Exploring adaptive capacities in Mediterranean agriculture: Insights from Central Italy's Ombrone catchment," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Cantore, V. & Lechkar, O. & Karabulut, E. & Sellami, M.H. & Albrizio, R. & Boari, F. & Stellacci, A.M. & Todorovic, M., 2016. "Combined effect of deficit irrigation and strobilurin application on yield, fruit quality and water use efficiency of “cherry” tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 53-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:caa:jnlswr:v:19:y:2024:i:1:id:107-2023-swr. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cazv.cz/en/home/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.