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An Empirical Examination of Aging’s Ramifications on Large-scale Agriculture: China’s Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Ji Mingbo

    (School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Ying Jiang

    (School of Economics, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Shao Xuyang

    (Institute for Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences, Chengdu University, Chengdu 610106, China)

  • Tian Yihao

    (School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract

Population aging has become a significant issue faced by major global economies. The rapid urbanisation process in China has led to a higher rate of aging in rural areas compared to urban areas. Existing studies have predominantly focused on the impact of aging on agricultural economics and production, with limited exploration into its effects on large-scale agriculture. Given the importance of large-scale agriculture as a crucial initiative for expanding agricultural investment and increasing land capital accumulation, it is pertinent to further investigate the implications of aging in this sector. The empirical examination of the impact of population aging on large-scale agriculture holds significant relevance for developing countries globally. These nations face dual challenges: an aging population and the need for agricultural modernisation. Research can aid in formulating targeted policies to address labour shortages, agricultural technological innovation, and market dynamics, thereby promoting sustainable development and food security. This study utilises data from China’s Third National Agricultural Census and employs measurements of aging at both the rural household and county-city dimensions. The analysis includes an examination of the moderating effects of per capita arable land area and the level of mechanisation on the impact of aging on large-scale agriculture. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) From the perspective of rural households, aging leads to an increase in the age of the rural labour force, resulting in a significant decrease in the probability of rural households participating in large-scale agriculture. (2) At the county-city level, aging contributes to a decline in the proportion of the population participating in large-scale agriculture, which is detrimental to the development of this sector. (3) In certain circumstances, the negative impact of aging on large-scale agriculture is exacerbated in areas with higher levels of agricultural mechanisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji Mingbo & Ying Jiang & Shao Xuyang & Tian Yihao, 2024. "An Empirical Examination of Aging’s Ramifications on Large-scale Agriculture: China’s Perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:18:y:2024:i:1:p:11:n:1002
    DOI: 10.1515/econ-2022-0094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jing Liu & Shichun Du & Zetian Fu, 2021. "The Impact of Rural Population Aging on Farmers’ Cleaner Production Behavior: Evidence from Five Provinces of the North China Plain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, November.
    2. Xing Xia & Xian Xin & Ling Ma, 2017. "What are the Determinants of Large-scale Farming in China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(4), pages 93-108, July.
    3. Chenchen Ren & Xinyue Zhou & Chen Wang & Yaolin Guo & Yu Diao & Sisi Shen & Stefan Reis & Wanyue Li & Jianming Xu & Baojing Gu, 2023. "Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 616(7955), pages 96-103, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Peng & Liu, Hanfeng & Chen, Yuhe, 2025. "Aging, financial coverage, and agricultural economic resilience: Nonlinear dynamics and thresholds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

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