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Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No

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  • Pearl Judea

    (Department of Computer Science, University of California – Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1596, USA)

Abstract

Conventional wisdom dictates that the more we know about a problem domain the easier it is to predict the effects of policies in that domain. Strangely, this wisdom is not sanctioned by formal analysis, when the notions of “knowledge” and “policy” are given concrete definitions in the context of nonparametric causal analysis. This note describes this peculiarity and speculates on its implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Pearl Judea, 2014. "Is Scientific Knowledge Useful for Policy Analysis? A Peculiar Theorem Says: No," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 109-112, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:causin:v:2:y:2014:i:1:p:4:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/jci-2014-0017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cartwright,Nancy, 2007. "Hunting Causes and Using Them," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521860819, September.
    2. Cartwright,Nancy, 2007. "Hunting Causes and Using Them," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521677981, September.
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