IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/journl/v19y2024i2p49-59.html

Decoding The Stock Market And Gdp Relationship Over The Long Term: Implications For Index Fund Investments

Author

Listed:
  • Flamur BUNJAKU

    (Independent Researcher)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between GDP and the stock market over the long term, intending to understand the implications for Index Fund investments. A quantitative research method, using US (United States) GDP as an independent variable, and the S&P 500 index as a dependent variable, is employed. A population of 29 years, from 1990 to 2019, of data on US GDP and the S&P 500 from official US sources was used. Linear regression analysis with SPSS calculating techniques is performed to determine whether there is a relationship between GDP growth and the stock market (S&P 500). The results show a significant positive relationship between GDP growth and S&P 500 performance. β coefficient of the regression analysis of 0.911 shows a strong correlation between the GDP and the S&P 500. Our findings are also scientifically validated by the sig (P value) coefficient of 0.0000000000012. In addition, an R Square of 0.830 shows that our model explains all the variability of the response data around the mean at a level of 83%. The positive results of GDP and the stock market relationship, indicate considerable implications for Index Funds investments. Therefore, adding academic value to the practical financial implication aspects.

Suggested Citation

  • Flamur BUNJAKU, 2024. "Decoding The Stock Market And Gdp Relationship Over The Long Term: Implications For Index Fund Investments," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 19(2), pages 49-59, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:19:y:2024:i:2:p:49-59
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://magazines.ulbsibiu.ro/eccsf/RePEc/blg/journl/19204bunjaku.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    2. William N. Goetzmann & Massimo Massa, 2003. "Index Funds and Stock Market Growth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 1-28, January.
    3. Albu, Lucian Liviu & Lupu, Radu & Calin, Cantemir, 2014. "A Nonlinear Model to Estimate the Long Term Correlation between Market Capitalization and GDP per capita in Eastern EU Countries," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 141115, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.
    2. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.
    3. LUPU, Radu & CALIN, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "A Mixed Frequency Analysis Of Connections Between Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Markets In Central And Eastern Europe," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(2), pages 69-79.
    4. Lucian-Liviu Albu, 2016. "Modelling of the relation between financial market and growth in EU: convergence and behavioural regimes," EcoMod2016 9694, EcoMod.
    5. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ghafoor, Abdul & Hussain Khan, Habib & Qureshi, Zeeshan, 2019. "Dynamics of mutual funds and stock markets in Asian developing economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Mihovil An?elinovi? & Livija Valenti? & Ana Pavkovi?, 2020. "Equity Fund Performance and Sector Diversification," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 25-43, June.
    7. Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2009. "The information content of market liquidity: An empirical analysis of liquidity at the Oslo Stock Exchange?," Working Paper 2009/26, Norges Bank.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter & Ghysels, Eric & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "Let's get "real" about using economic data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-360, August.
    9. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
    10. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HarzAllah, AMIRA, 2025. "Integration, Contagion and Turmoils; Evidence from Emerging markets," MPRA Paper 123775, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 2025.
    11. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    12. Victor Olkhov, 2023. "Market-Based Probability of Stock Returns," Papers 2302.07935, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    13. Mercan Hatipoglu, . "Revisiting Linkages between Stock Prices and Real Activity in OECD Countries: Does Finance Respond to Changing Situation of Economy?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    14. Victor Elsa Sapphira & Razali Muhammad Najib & Ali Hishamuddin Mohd., 2023. "The Dynamics of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Pan-Asia’s Real Estate Investment Trusts," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 11-22, December.
    15. Claudiu Vinte & Marcel Ausloos, 2022. "The Cross-Sectional Intrinsic Entropy. A Comprehensive Stock Market Volatility Estimator," Papers 2205.00104, arXiv.org.
    16. Halim, Edward & Riyanto, Yohanes Eko & Roy, Nilanjan, 2016. "Price Dynamics and Consumption Smoothing in Experimental Asset Markets," MPRA Paper 71631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Sy, Oumar & Zaman, Ashraf Al, 2020. "Is the presidential premium spurious?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 94-104.
    18. Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
    19. Piotr Fiszeder & Sebastian Rowinski, 2012. "Modeling relations between selected macroeconomic processes and the Warsaw Stock Exchange index," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10(3), pages 153-167, September.
    20. Neifar, Malika, 2023. "Macroeconomic Factors and UK Stock Market: Evidence through the Non-Linear ARDL model," MPRA Paper 116298, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:19:y:2024:i:2:p:49-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mihaela Herciu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feulbro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.