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Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis

Author

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  • Raphael Amit
  • Ian Domowitz
  • Chaim Fershtman

Abstract

An assessment of opponents' reactions to strategic and functional area policy decisions is shown to require knowledge concerning opponents' beliefs about the firm's behavior. This study introduces a methodology for incorporating such conjectures into the business planning process. It presents an analytical measure for these conjectural variations and discusses several illustrations. Examples of the application of the framework are provided by the Japanese flat glass industry and the U.S. domestic coffee roasting industry. The use of a broad range of conjectural variations in competitor analysis is discussed, and implications for business strategy formulation are highlighted.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Amit & Ian Domowitz & Chaim Fershtman, 1988. "Thinking one step ahead: The use of conjectures in competitor analysis," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(5), pages 431-442, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stratm:v:9:y:1988:i:5:p:431-442
    DOI: 10.1002/smj.4250090504
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    Cited by:

    1. Lim, Lewis K.S., 2013. "Mapping competitive prediction capability: Construct conceptualization and performance payoffs," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(9), pages 1576-1586.
    2. Faouzi Bensebaa, 2001. "Impact des sphères d'influence sur le comportement concurrentiel des firmes," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 4(2), pages 33-61, March.
    3. Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lai, Jung-Ho, 2008. "The effect of alliance experience and intellectual capital on the value creation of international strategic alliances," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 298-316, April.
    4. Filip Abraham & Yannick Bormans & Jozef Konings & Werner Roeger, 2020. "Price-cost margins and fixed costs," Working Papers 202010, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    5. Peón, David & Antelo, Manel & Sun, Yanfei, 2024. "Market competition and strategic interaction in the Spanish FinTech industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    6. Ruiz-Moreno, Felipe & Mas-Ruiz, Francisco J. & Sancho-Esper, Franco M., 2021. "Strategic groups and product differentiation: Evidence from the Spanish airline market deregulation," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Ángela González-Moreno & Francisco Sáez-Martínez, 2008. "Rivalry and strategic groups: what makes a company a rival?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 12(3), pages 261-285, August.
    8. Abdelmajid Amine & Faouzi Bensebaa, 2005. "Intensité concurrentielle entre lignes de produits rivales:un éclairage par la théorie de la concurrence multimarchés," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 8(2), pages 5-37, June.

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