IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/revinw/v54y2008i3p350-372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Rafael Gómez
  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

Abstract

Can divergent demographic trends account for differences in per capita output across countries? We address this question by offering evidence that the process of population ageing is positively and significantly related to cross-country economic performance. We define and estimate the effect of demographic change in two ways. First, a growing cohort of working age persons (15-64) as a share of the total population is found to have a large positive effect on GDP per capita . Second, an increase in the number of prime age persons (35-54) relative to the younger working age population (15-34) is found to have a positive but curvilinear effect with respect to per capita GDP. We find that changes in per capita GDP peak when the ratio of the prime-to-younger age population reaches an optimum of prime age workers for every younger aged worker. Beyond or below this optimal ratio, per capita output is lowered. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 International Association for Research in Income and Wealth Published.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008. "Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(3), pages 350-372, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:54:y:2008:i:3:p:350-372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2008.00279.x/enhancedabs
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "Impact of population aging on Asia’s future growth," Chapters,in: Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 3, pages 83-110 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Birgit Aigner-Walder & Thomas Döring, 2012. "The Effects of Population Ageing on Private Consumption — A Simulation for Austria Based on Household Data up to 2050," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 63-80, June.
    3. Ross Guest, 2013. "Population Ageing and Productivity: Implications and Policy Options for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/21, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Thomas Flochel & Yuki Ikeda & Harry Moroz & Nithin Umapathi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in East Asia Pacific," World Bank Other Operational Studies 23026, The World Bank.
    5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Lábaj, Martin & Pružinský, Patrik, 2014. "Prospective ageing and economic growth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 50-57.
    6. Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2011. "Immigration and growth in an ageing economy - version 2," MERIT Working Papers 037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. M. Narayana, 2015. "India’s Age Structure Transition, Sectoral Labor Productivities, and Economic Growth: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(3), pages 381-415, June.
    8. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "What are the drivers of TFP in the Aging Economy? Aging labor and ICT capital," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 201-211.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:54:y:2008:i:3:p:350-372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iariwea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.