International Trade, Hedging, and the Demand for Forward Contracts
One of the main results of the literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade states that uncertainty should not matter in the presence of well-developed forward markets. Empirical studies, however, do not support this result. We derive the demand for forward cover in a small open economy with terms-of-trade uncertainty. Adopting a standard and more realistic decision structure than the one usually used in this literature, we find that risk-averse agents will not buy forwards at an unbiased price. Agents treat forward contracts as an asset rather than as an insurance. This is the reason why, when calibrating the model, only 17% of imports are covered by forwards. Copyright © 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 15 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0965-7576|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002.
"Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows,"
NBER Working Papers
9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998.
"Does exchange rate stability increase trade and capital flows?,"
9818, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," Working Papers 98.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1985. "Optimal international hedging in commodity and currency forward markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 537-552, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998.
"Risk and Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Viaene, J-M. & De Vries, C.G., 1989.
"International Trade And Exchange Rate Volatility,"
8905, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, 09.
- Shang-Jin Wei, 1998.
"Currency Hedging and Goods Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
6742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Discriminating Monopoly, Forward Markets and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 459-68, June.
- Kawai, Masahiro & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1986. "International trade with forward-futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 83-98, February.
- Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
- Broll, Udo & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1991.
"Exchange rate uncertainty, futures markets and the multinational firm,"
Discussion Papers, Series II
139, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
- Broll, Udo & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1992. "Exchange rate uncertainty, futures markets and the multinational firm," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 815-826, May.
- Maddison, Angus, 1987. "Growth and Slowdown in Advanced Capitalist Economies: Techniques of Quantitative Assessment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 649-98, June.
- Viaene, Jean-Marie & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1998. "The Behavior of Competitive Exporting Firms under Multiple Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 591-609, August.
- Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
- Zilcha, Itzhak & Broll, Udo, 1992. "Optimal hedging by firms with multiple sources of risky revenues," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 473-477, August.
- Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994.
- Adam-Muller, Axel F. A., 2000. "Hedging price risk when real wealth matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 549-560, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:15:y:2007:i:2:p:414-429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.