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Diagnostic Checks for Single-Equation Error-Correction and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

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  • Gerrard, W J
  • Godfrey, L G

Abstract

Single equation error correction models (ECMs) are widely used in the analysis of cointegrated variables. It is important to check the specification of ECMs using diagnostic tests. Monte Carlo evidence is reported that shows that the finite sample significance levels of such tests can be sensitive to the method used to estimate long-run coefficients that yield the error-correction term of the ECM. Estimates of long-run coefficients based upon autoregressive-distributed lag (ADL) models are recommended. The applicability of diagnostic checks to ADL models for integrated variables is examined. An indirect approach to obtaining asymptotically valid checks is proposed. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Gerrard, W J & Godfrey, L G, 1998. "Diagnostic Checks for Single-Equation Error-Correction and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(2), pages 222-237, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:66:y:1998:i:2:p:222-37
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    Cited by:

    1. Cazals, Catherine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Rodriguez, Frank & Soteri, Soterios & Veruete-McKay, Leticia, 2010. "UK Letter Mail Demand: A Content Based Time Series Analysis Using Overlapping Market Survey Statistical Techniques," TSE Working Papers 10-170, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387.
    3. Roseline N. Misati & Esman M. Nyamongo & Anne W. Kamau, 2011. "Interest rate pass-through in Kenya," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 170-182, July.
    4. Catherine Cazals & Jean-Pierre Florens & Leticia Veruete-McKay & Soterios Soteri & Frank Rodriguez, 2011. "UK Letter Mail Demand: A Content-based Time-series Analysis Using Overlapping Market Survey Statistical Techniques," Chapters,in: Reinventing the Postal Sector in an Electronic Age, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. David Giles & Patrick Caragata, 2001. "The learning path of the hidden economy: the tax burden and tax evasion in New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1857-1867.
    6. Davis, Joseph H. & Irwin, Douglas A., 2008. "The antebellum U.S. iron industry: Domestic production and foreign competition," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 254-269, July.
    7. Kim, Hyun Seok & Koo, Won W., 2010. "Factors affecting the carbon allowance market in the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1879-1884, April.
    8. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
    9. Ammar Hamad Khalaf, 2011. "Impact of Financial Liberalization on Financial Depth in Iraq," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(2), pages 063-074, December.
    10. Veruete-McKay Leticia & Soteri Soterios & Nankervis John C. & Rodriguez Frank, 2011. "Letter Traffic Demand in the UK: An Analysis by Product and Envelope Content Type," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, September.
    11. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
    12. Jes??s Crespo-Cuaresma & Bal??zs ??gert & Thomas Reininger, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in New EU Member States: The Case of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-671, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Maja Kadievska-Vojnovic & Danica Unevska, 2007. "Price and Income Elasticities of Export and Import and Economic Growth in the case of the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2007-01, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    14. Xia, Yan & Susanto, Dwi & Rosson, C. Parr, III, 2007. "Testing the Market Integration in Regional Cantaloupe and Melon Markets between the U.S. and Mexico: An Application of Error Correction Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34844, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Kanas, Angelos & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "A cointegration approach to the lead-lag effect among size-sorted equity portfolios," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 181-201.
    16. Bjørn E. Naug, 1999. "Modelling the Demand for Imports and Domestic Output," Discussion Papers 243, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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