IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v170y2007i1p115-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bartolucci
  • Fulvia Pennoni
  • Brian Francis

Abstract

The paper investigates the problem of determining patterns of criminal behaviour from official criminal histories, concentrating on the variety and type of offending convictions. The analysis is carried out on the basis of a multivariate latent Markov model which allows for discrete covariates affecting the initial and the transition probabilities of the latent process. We also show some simplifications which reduce the number of parameters substantially; we include a Rasch-like parameterization of the conditional distribution of the response variables given the latent process and a constraint of partial homogeneity of the latent Markov chain. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model we outline an EM algorithm based on recursions known in the hidden Markov literature, which make the estimation feasible also when the number of time occasions is large. Through this model, we analyse the conviction histories of a cohort of offenders who were born in England and Wales in 1953. The final model identifies five latent classes and specifies common transition probabilities for males and females between 5-year age periods, but with different initial probabilities. Copyright 2007 Royal Statistical Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bartolucci & Fulvia Pennoni & Brian Francis, 2007. "A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(1), pages 115-132.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:170:y:2007:i:1:p:115-132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2006.00440.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Bartolucci, 2006. "Likelihood inference for a class of latent Markov models under linear hypotheses on the transition probabilities," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 155-178.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bartolucci, Francesco & Farcomeni, Alessio, 2009. "A Multivariate Extension of the Dynamic Logit Model for Longitudinal Data Based on a Latent Markov Heterogeneity Structure," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(486), pages 816-831.
    2. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & André Lucas & Kees van Montfort & Victor van der Geest, 2008. "Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 62(1), pages 104-130.
    3. De Angelis, L & Paas, L.J., 2009. "The dynamic analysis and prediction of stock markets through the latent Markov model," Serie Research Memoranda 0053, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. F. Bartolucci & A. Farcomeni & F. Pennoni, 2014. "Latent Markov models: a review of a general framework for the analysis of longitudinal data with covariates," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(3), pages 433-465, September.
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:814-:d:136317 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Brian Francis & Jiayi Liu, 2015. "Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 73(2), pages 277-297, August.
    7. Kelava, Augustin & Kohler, Michael & Krzyżak, Adam & Schaffland, Tim Fabian, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of a latent variable model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 112-134.
    8. S. Bacci & S. Pandolfi & F. Pennoni, 2014. "A comparison of some criteria for states selection in the latent Markov model for longitudinal data," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 8(2), pages 125-145, June.
    9. Francesco Bartolucci & Ivonne Solis-Trapala, 2010. "Multidimensional Latent Markov Models in a Developmental Study of Inhibitory Control and Attentional Flexibility in Early Childhood," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 725-743, December.
    10. Paas, L.J. & Vermunt, J.K. & Bijmolt, T.H.A., 2007. "Discrete-time discrete-state latent Markov modelling for assessing and predicting household acquisitions of financial products," Other publications TiSEM 5781ab33-6687-4ad5-b57a-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:170:y:2007:i:1:p:115-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.