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The Usefulness of Book‐to‐Market and ROE Expectations for Explaining UK Stock Returns

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  • Colin Clubb
  • Mounir Naffi

Abstract

The fundamental valuation perspective on stock returns suggests that book‐to‐market will be positively related to returns if market value of equity equals future expected cash flows discounted at the expected return and book value proxies for future cash flows. Building on this perspective, we develop a log linear model which includes expectations of future BM and ROE in addition to current BM as explanatory variables for future stock returns. We show that these three variables explain a significant part of UK cross‐sectional stock returns and that they remain highly statistically significant after including additional risk proxy variables. This supports relevance of fundamental valuation based firm characteristics for explaining stock returns and indicates their potential usefulness for predicting future stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Clubb & Mounir Naffi, 2007. "The Usefulness of Book‐to‐Market and ROE Expectations for Explaining UK Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1‐2), pages 1-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:34:y:2007:i:1-2:p:1-32
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2006.00662.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melo, Jean Marcio & Távora, Lamartine & Xavier, Leonardo & Lucena, Pierre, 2010. "Os indicadores ROE e PVPA aplicados como balizadores de estratégias de investimentos: uma análise do mercado acionário brasileiro de 1995 a 2009 [The PVPA and ROE indicators used as a guide for inv," MPRA Paper 38123, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mattias Hamberg & Jiri Novak, 2010. "Accounting Conservatism and Transitory Earnings in Value and Growth Strategies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 518-537, June.
    3. Muhammad Usman Arshad, 2021. "Forecasted E/P Ratio and ROE: Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    4. Byoung‐Kyu Min & Jangkoo Kang & Changjun Lee & Tai‐Yong Roh, 2020. "The q‐Factors and Macroeconomic Conditions: Asymmetric Effects of the Business Cycles on Long and Short Sides," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 897-921, December.
    5. Lin, Yi-Mien & Lee, Chih-Chen & Chao, Chin-Fang & Liu, Chih-Liang, 2015. "The information content of unexpected stock returns: Evidence from intellectual capital," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 208-225.
    6. John Cotter & Niall McGeever, 2018. "Are equity market anomalies disappearing? Evidence from the U.K," Working Papers 201804, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    7. Sakchai Naknok, 2022. "Firm Performance Indicators as a Fundamental Analysis of Stocks and a Determinant of a Firm’s Operation," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 190-213.

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