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Future Changes in British Agriculture: Projecting Divergent Farm Household Behaviour

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  • Mark Shucksmith
  • Vera Herrmann

Abstract

The recent decline in farm incomes has focused attention on farmers' uneven propensity to adjust and adapt. Changes in farm policies are slowly redirecting the support paid to farmers in Europe, and further reforms are envisaged. This paper argues that farmers in Britain are likely to pursue highly diverse strategies in this changed context, according to their individual circumstances, values and attitudes. These groups (essentially ideal types) are derived both from in‐depth qualitative interviews and from a cluster analysis of variables relating to the farm and to the farm household's socialisation and attitudes. The paper seeks to draw out the implications of divergent farm household behaviour for future structural change, and for agricultural and rural policy. Opportunities are identified for the UK government to implement the EU Rural Development Regulation in ways that would suit the varied circumstances of British farmers in the postproductivist transition.

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  • Mark Shucksmith & Vera Herrmann, 2002. "Future Changes in British Agriculture: Projecting Divergent Farm Household Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 37-50, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:53:y:2002:i:1:p:37-50
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.2002.tb00004.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lobley, Matt & Butler, Allan, 2010. "The impact of CAP reform on farmers' plans for the future: Some evidence from South West England," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 341-348, August.
    2. Lee-Ann Sutherland, 2010. "Differentiating farmers: opening the black box of private farming in post-Soviet states," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 27(3), pages 259-276, September.
    3. Brian C. Briggeman & Allan W. Gray & Mitchell J. Morehart & Timothy G. Baker & Christine A. Wilson, 2007. "A New U.S. Farm Household Typology: Implications for Agricultural Policy," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 765-782.
    4. J. Gareth Polhill & Lee-Ann Sutherland & Nicholas M. Gotts, 2010. "Using Qualitative Evidence to Enhance an Agent-Based Modelling System for Studying Land Use Change," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10.
    5. Sanz Sanz, Esther & Martinetti, Davide & Napoléone, Claude, 2018. "Operational modelling of peri-urban farmland for public action in Mediterranean context," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 757-771.
    6. Iraizoz, Belen & Gorton, Matthew & Davidova, Sophia, 2007. "Segmenting farms for analysing agricultural trajectories: A case study of the Navarra region in Spain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 143-169, March.
    7. Butinya, Lluis & Velazco, Jackeline & Rigall-I-Torrent, Ricard, 2014. "Determinants of on-farm diversification: The case of farmers in Catalonia," Revista Espanola de Estudios Agrosociales y Pesqueros, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (formerly Ministry of Agriculture), issue 238, pages 1-28.
    8. Carolan, Michael, 2018. "Lands changing hands: Experiences of succession and farm (knowledge) acquisition among first-generation, multigenerational, and aspiring farmers," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 179-189.
    9. Murphy, Geraldine & Meredith, David, 2015. "A typology of cattle farmers in Ireland: An overview of data, method and indicators," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212518, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Mariem Baccar & Ahmed Bouaziz & Patrick Dugué & Mohamed Gafsi & Pierre-Yves Le Gal, 2020. "Sustainability Viewed from Farmers’ Perspectives in a Resource-Constrained Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-15, October.
    11. Anthony M. Fuller & Siyuan Xu & Lee-Ann Sutherland & Fabiano Escher, 2021. "Land to the Tiller: The Sustainability of Family Farms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-24, October.
    12. Ke Zheng & Yufeng Li & Chaodang Wu, 2022. "How Do the Chinese New Farmers’ Entrepreneurial Talents Drive the Business Model Innovation of Agricultural Business Organizations? Case Study Based on Grounded Research," Businesses, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, March.
    13. Ron Methorst & Dirk Roep & Frans Verhees & Jos Verstegen, 2016. "Drivers for differences in dairy farmers’ perceptions of farm development strategies in an area with nature and landscape as protected public goods," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 31(5), pages 554-571, August.
    14. Lesley Hunt, 2010. "Interpreting orchardists’ talk about their orchards: the good orchardists," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 27(4), pages 415-426, December.
    15. Holderieath, Jason, 2016. "Spatiotemporal management under heterogeneous damage and uncertain parameters. An agent-based approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235850, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Lobley, Matt & Potter, Clive & Butler, Allan J. & Whitehead, Ian & Millard, Nick, 2005. "The Wider Social Impacts of Changes in the Structure of Agricultural Businesses," Research Reports 31745, University of Exeter, Centre for Rural Policy Research.
    17. Lee-Ann Sutherland & Carla Barlagne & Andrew P. Barnes, 2019. "Beyond ‘Hobby Farming’: towards a typology of non-commercial farming," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 36(3), pages 475-493, September.

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