Managing Import Dependency Risks in Contexts of Polycrises: The Case of Jordan

This study examines the critical role of trade facilitation in enhancing food security in Jordan, a country where 90% of essential food items are imported. Despite being a regional leader in implementing the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), Jordan faces persistent challenges due to logistical inefficiencies, institutional fragmentation, and high agricultural trade costs. Using Causal Process Tracing (CPT), the research evaluates how trade facilitation measures impact food security, while identifying systemic bottlenecks that undermine their effectiveness. The findings reveal that while Jordan has made significant progress in digitalization and procedural reforms, structural barriers—such as protracted clearance times for perishable goods, underdeveloped cold chain infrastructure, and maritime connectivity deficits—limit the TFA's potential. Non‐tariff measures (NTMs) further exacerbate delays and costs. The “Hoop test” confirms that trade facilitation is necessary but insufficient alone in Jordan; complementary policies, such as institutional consolidation through a Single Window system, logistics modernisation, and regional cooperation on Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs), are essential to strengthen resilience. The study concludes with targeted recommendations: (1) accelerating digital integration and NTM reform to streamline agricultural trade; (2) expanding port capacity and cold chain infrastructure to reduce spoilage; and (3) diversifying trade routes to mitigate geopolitical risks.