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Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions

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  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="geer12025-abs-0001"> Using a recursive empirical model of the real interest rate, GDP growth and the primary government deficit in the United States, I solve for the ergodic distribution of the debt/GDP ratio. If such a distribution exists, the government is satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint. One key finding is that historical fiscal policy would bring the current high-debt ratio back to its normal level of 0.35 over the coming decade. Forecasts of continuing increases in the ratio over the decade make the implicit assumption that fiscal policy has shifted dramatically. In the variant of the model that matches the forecast, the government would not satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint if the policy was permanent. The willingness of investors to hold US government debt implies a belief that the high-deficit policy is transitory.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Hall, 2014. "Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 15(1), pages 4-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:15:y:2014:i:1:p:4-22
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/geer.2014.15.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Bellifemine, Marco & Couturier, Adrien & Jamilov, Rustam, 2025. "Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Guo, Minjie & McDermott, John, 2020. "Sovereign debt and the length of economic depressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 79-91.
    3. Zhang, Ailian & Pan, Mengmeng & Liu, Bai & Cao, Xianbin, 2023. "Do high-speed rail (HSR) station and airport affect local government debt risk? Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 41-51.
    4. Bellifemine, Marco & Couturier, Adrien & Jamilov, Rustam, 2025. "Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128186, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Jean Barthélemy & Guillaume Plantin, 2018. "Fiscal and Monetary Regime: A Strategic Approach," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers hal-03815028, HAL.
    6. Sang Hyeon Lee & Doo Bong Han & Vincenzina Caputo & Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr., 2015. "Consumers’ Valuation for a Reduced Salt Product: A Nonhypothetical Choice Experiment," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(4), pages 563-582, December.
    7. repec:grz:wpaper:2015-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Maximilian Goedl & Christoph Zwick, 2018. "Assessing the stochastic stability of public debt: the case of Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 559-585, August.
    9. Piero Ferri & Fabio Tramontana, 2018. "Debt Persistence in a Deflationary Environment: A Regime-Switching Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 421-442, August.
    10. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2016. "A Stochastic Indicator for Sovereign Debt Sustainability," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 72(3), pages 229-267, September.
    11. Yuanting Xia & Wenxiu Hu & Zhenxing Su, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Social Financing Scale and Local Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Local Governments in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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