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The Impact of the Shadow Economy on Indirect Tax Revenues

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  • Mina Vlachaki

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecpo12054-abs-0001"> This paper examines empirically the impact of the shadow economy on indirect tax revenues in an unbalanced panel of 125 countries for the period 1990–2011. The same analysis is conducted excluding at first and then including international trade tax revenues in (total) indirect tax revenues, as a way to disentangle any impact of trade liberalization. In both cases, the results suggest that the size of the shadow economy increases the ratio of indirect tax revenues to GDP, as long as informality does not exceed a cutoff value. When the size of the shadow economy exceeds that level, any further increase affects indirect taxation negatively. The findings are robust to a number of sensitivity tests and when addressing the problem of potential endogeneity. The empirical evidence is in line with the predictions provided by the theoretical framework of the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Mina Vlachaki, 2015. "The Impact of the Shadow Economy on Indirect Tax Revenues," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 234-265, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:27:y:2015:i:2:p:234-265
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecpo.2015.27.issue-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Goel, Rajeev K. & Mazhar, Ummad, 2024. "Cryptocurrency use and tax collections: Direct and indirect channels of influence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Dokas, Ioannis & Panagiotidis, Minas & Papadamou, Stephanos & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2024. "The impact of the shadow economy on the direct-indirect tax mix: Can central banks’ independence mitigate the effect?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 475-493.
    3. Caro, Paolo Di & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The heterogeneous effects of labor informality on VAT revenues: Evidence on a developed country," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2020. "Internet and tax reform in developing countries," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal & Jauhari Dahalan & K. Kuperan Viswanathan, 2020. "An econometric analysis of the underground economy and tax evasion in Kuwait," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 25(3), pages 307-331.

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