How Research Goes Astray: Paths And Equilibria

Some research disciplines persist for long periods despite contributing very little to our understanding of the world. In the presence of imperfect information about the quality of research, multiple equilibria can exist in which path dependence leads to disciplines going astray because researchers are incentivized to invest in low value lines of research. Research fields which have high social value are more likely to thrive, as are fields in which results are subject to evidence. Survivorship bias can lead to a distribution across disciplines in which weak disciplines have more talented researchers than do stronger disciplines. (JEL A11, A12, B40)