IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecaffa/v42y2022i2p369-384.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How might the United Kingdom's debt–GDP ratio be reduced? Evidence from the last 120 years

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Wickens

Abstract

This article examines how the currently high level of the UK's debt–GDP ratio can be reduced. We consider whether anything can be learned from previous experience over the last 120 years by examining the contributions both to the increase in the debt–GDP ratio and to the reduction of the debt–GDP ratio by various components of the government budget constraint: the primary surplus, growth, inflation, and interest rates and payments. We also examine the effectiveness of policy in influencing these components. We conclude by considering what level of UK debt might be sustainable and whether this is economically and politically achievable.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wickens, 2022. "How might the United Kingdom's debt–GDP ratio be reduced? Evidence from the last 120 years," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 369-384, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:42:y:2022:i:2:p:369-384
    DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12529
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecaf.12529?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Ellison & Andrew Scott, 2020. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694–2018," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 227-257, July.
    2. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Michael Wickens, 2012. "Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9743.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    2. Casalin, Fabrizio & Cerniglia, Floriana & Dia, Enzo, 2023. "Stock-flow adjustments, public debt management and interest costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Chih-Ching Yu & Ching Lu, 2023. "Reassessing the Impact of Fear Appeals in Sustainable Consumption Communication: An Investigation into Message Types and Message Foci," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.
    4. Jaime Villanueva-García & Ignacio Moral-Arce & Luis Javier García Villalba, 2025. "A Microsimulation Model for Sustainability and Detailed Adequacy Analysis of the Retirement Pension System," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-28, January.
    5. Petr Makovsky, 2017. "The Value of the Firm in Dependence on Technological Shocks – the Czech Republic Case," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 11(1), pages 45-60.
    6. Heer, Burkhard & Rohrbacher, Stefan, 2021. "Endogenous longevity and optimal tax progressivity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Ernesto del Castillo & René Cabral & Eduardo Saucedo, 2022. "The Sustainability of Mexican Municipal Public Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-14, May.
    8. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2023. "Pension Systems (Un)sustainability and Fiscal Constraints: A Comparative Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 18181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2023. "New estimates of international capital mobility for select OECD economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 127-138.
    10. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.
    11. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
    12. repec:ejw:journl:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p:196-217 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Donal Smith, 2015. "Collateral Constraints and the Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 15/22, Department of Economics, University of York.
    14. Park, Kwangyong, 2024. "An aging population and sustainable government debt: The case of Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    15. Heer, Burkhard & Trede, Mark, 2023. "Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Michael Wickens, 2014. "How Useful are DSGE Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 171-193, February.
    17. Sameera Awawda & Mohammad Abu-Zaineh & Bruno Ventelou, 2019. "Who Bears the Burden of Universal Health Coverage? An Assessment of Alternative Financing Policies Using an Overlapping generations General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 1335, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    18. Edouard Ribes, 2022. "What are the financial implications of an ageing population for European citizens?," Working Papers hal-03118783, HAL.
    19. Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2022. "The implications of public expenditures on a small economy in transition: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 401-431, February.
    20. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2023. "Population Aging and Income Inequality in a Semi-Endogenous Growth Model," KIER Working Papers 1096, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    21. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "A note on news about the future: the impact on DSGE models and their VAR representation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:42:y:2022:i:2:p:369-384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0265-0665 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.