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The Bilateral J‐Curve: Australia Versus Her 23 Trading Partners

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  • MOHSEN BAHMANI‐OSKOOEE
  • GOUR G. GOSWAMI
  • BIDYUT KUMAR TALUKDAR

Abstract

Several studies have tested the J‐curve phenomenon for Australia using non‐stationary aggregate trade data and have provided mixed results. They not only suffer from the ‘aggregation bias problem’ but also from the ‘spurious regression problem’. To overcome these problems, in this paper we investigate the short‐run and the long‐run effects of real depreciation of the Australian dollar on the trade balance between Australia and each of her 23 trading partners using quarterly data over the 1973–2001 period and recent advances in cointegration analysis. The results from the bound testing approach for cointegration and error‐correction modeling does not provide much support for the J‐curve phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami & Bidyut Kumar Talukdar, 2005. "The Bilateral J‐Curve: Australia Versus Her 23 Trading Partners," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 110-120, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:110-120
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2005.00252.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    2. Kwame Akosah, Nana & Omane-Adjepong, Maurice, 2017. "Exchange Rate and External Trade Flows: Empirical Evidence of J-Curve Effect in Ghana," MPRA Paper 86640, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2017.
    3. YENLIDE, Tchablemane, 2021. "Corruption et sorties illicites de capitaux dans les pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne: La démocratie compte-elle vraiment? [Corruption and Illicit Capital Outflows in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Democr," MPRA Paper 110750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "Impact Of Exchange Rate Uncertainty On Commodity Trade Between The Us And Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 235-258, September.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Baek, Jungho, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-30.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2011. "How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-91, February.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2008. "Are devaluations contractionary in emerging economies of Eastern Europe?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 61-74, March.
    9. Cortes, Maria, 2007. "Examining Patterns of Bilateral Trade between Australia and Colombia by Using Cointegration Analysis and Error-Correction Models," Economics Working Papers wp07-20, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    10. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Gauhar Rehman Panezai & Salahuddin, 2021. "Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2263-2278, April.
    11. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yomgqing Wang, 2007. "The J‐Curve At The Industry Level: Evidence From Trade Between The Us And Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 315-328, December.
    13. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Somchith Souksavath & Sengchanh Chanthasene, 2018. "Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 590-603, June.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2019. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: new evidence from Korean bilateral trade balance models with her 14 partners," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2009. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity Of Australia'S Trade Flows: Evidence From Industry Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    17. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ruixin Zhang, 2015. "Koreas Inpayments and Outpayments with the Rest of the World: Is There Room for Currency Manipulation?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 12-32, January.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Shafiullah & Faridul Islam, 2017. "The Bilateral J-Curve in Australia: A Nonlinear Reappraisal," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 249-269, September.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July.
    21. M. Ege Yazgan & Serda Selin Ozturk, 2019. "Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Trade: Does the J-curve Effect Really Hold?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 343-373, April.
    22. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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