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Food prices: developments and outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso

    (Banco de España)

  • Lucía Cuadro-Sáez

    (Banco de España)

  • Corinna Ghirelli

    (Banco de España)

  • Matías Pacce

    (Banco de España)

  • Isabel Sánchez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

Rationale Between 2019 Q4 and 2024 Q4 food prices in Spain rose more than those of the other components of the consumption basket. This article looks at food price developments, their main determinants and the outlook for food prices in the future. Takeaways •Food prices have surged in recent years because of factors such as rising energy costs and certain extreme weather events, which have affected food commodity prices and production. •Relative food prices (measured as the ratio of food HICP to core HICP, i.e. headline HICP excluding energy and food) have risen more in Spain than in the euro area: 19% versus 13% in cumulative terms in the period 2019-2024. •This difference in relative food prices is explained by differences in the composition of the consumption basket, as some of the foodstuffs whose prices have risen the most, such as olive oil, have a greater weight in the Spanish consumption basket.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso & Lucía Cuadro-Sáez & Corinna Ghirelli & Matías Pacce & Isabel Sánchez, 2025. "Food prices: developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2025/Q2.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2025:i:02:n:05
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.53479/39667
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2024. "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2024," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 41280, April.
    2. World Bank, 2024. "Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2024," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 42219, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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      More about this item

      Keywords

      Inflation; food prices; relative prices;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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