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Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Declining as Expected (Not as Desired)

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  • Mendez, D.
  • Warner, K.E.

Abstract

We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R2=.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendez, D. & Warner, K.E., 2004. "Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence: Declining as Expected (Not as Desired)," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(2), pages 251-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:2004:94:2:251-252_0
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Boardman & Casey Blalock & Fred Pampel & Peter Hatemi & Andrew Heath & Lindon Eaves, 2011. "Population Composition, Public Policy, and the Genetics of Smoking," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1517-1533, November.
    2. Ahmad, Sajjad & Billimek, John, 2007. "Limiting youth access to tobacco: Comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 378-391, March.
    3. Ahmad, Sajjad, 2005. "Closing the youth access gap: The projected health benefits and cost savings of a national policy to raise the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 74-84, December.
    4. Antwan Jones & Angelika Gulbis & Elizabeth Baker, 2010. "Differences in tobacco use between Canada and the United States," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 55(3), pages 167-175, June.
    5. Rosemary Avery & Donald Kenkel & Dean Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2007. "Regulating advertisements: the case of smoking cessation products," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 185-208, April.
    6. Rosemary Avery & Donald Kenkel & Dean R. Lillard & Alan Mathios, 2007. "Private Profits and Public Health: Does Advertising of Smoking Cessation Products Encourage Smokers to Quit?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 447-481.
    7. Levy, David T. & Hyland, Andrew & Higbee, Cheryl & Remer, Lillian & Compton, Christine, 2007. "The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: Results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-185, July.

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