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Short-term Price Prediction in Initial Public Offerings Using XGBoost: Bist Technology Sector Example

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  • Gazme Şekeroğlu
  • Ayşe Merve Acılar

Abstract

The aim of the study is to predict the closing price of the next trading day's stocks, of the initial public offering firms in the short term (between 5 and 10 days). For this purpose, firstly, the companies that went public in BIST in 2022, 2023, and 2024 are listed. Among these sectors, the decision was made to conduct the research in the technology sector, which experienced the highest number of initial public offerings in 2024. Using the model created with the XGBoost algorithm, price prediction for the Borsa Istanbul technology sector was made. The data to be used in the analyses consist of the daily closing stock prices of FORTE, which was the first IPO in 2023 and operates in the technology sector, from 15.06.2023 to 28.06.2024. It also includes the daily closing values of the BIST TECHNOLOGY and BIST IPO indices, and the first four-day closing stock prices of the technology sector companies (ODINE, PATEK, and ALTNY) that were the first IPOs in 2024. As a result of the coding steps performed using Python, it was found that the difference between the predicted prices and the actual prices gradually decreased from the fifth to the tenth day after the IPO.

Suggested Citation

  • Gazme Şekeroğlu & Ayşe Merve Acılar, 2025. "Short-term Price Prediction in Initial Public Offerings Using XGBoost: Bist Technology Sector Example," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 10(2), pages 549-567.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:10:y:2025:i:2:p:549-567
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.1622717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Su, Dongwei & Fleisher, Belton M., 1999. "An empirical investigation of underpricing in Chinese IPOs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 173-202, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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