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Sytuacja podażowa w sektorze kakao w Ghanie w latach 2016-2022 i jej potencjalny wpływ na import kakao do Polski

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  • Chmielewski, Łukasz

Abstract

The aim of the article is to analyse the cocoa market supply situation in Ghana, review the global legislative changes in the cocoa sector, and assess their potential impact on cocoa imports to Poland. The analysis covered the years 2016–2022 to highlight the dynamics of the market and political changes in this sector, taking into account political and market initiatives of both global importers and key cocoa producers. This is an important area of research, especially in the context of changes in EU environmental policy and corporate responsibility. The analysis showed a significant role of cocoa imports from Ghana in total imports to Poland and its price advantage, a strong statistical relationship between fertiliser consumption in Ghana and cocoa yields, and a very strong decline in fertilisation, which results in a reduction in the supply of Ghanaian cocoa. Additionally, the proposed regulatory changes may limit the supply of cocoa and increase operating costs. This may result in an increase in cocoa prices. / Synopsis. Celem artykułu jest analiza sytuacji podażowej na rynku kakao w Ghanie, przegląd zmian legislacyjnych na świecie w sektorze kakao i ocena ich potencjalnego wpływu na import kakao do Polski. Analizą objęto lata 2016-2022, by podkreślić dynamikę zachodzących zmian rynkowych w tym sektorze. Uwzględniono przy tym uwarunkowania prawne i politykę prowadzoną przez globalnych importerów i kluczowych producentów kakao na świecie. To ważny aspekt zwłaszcza w kontekście zmian unijnej polityki środowiskowej i odpowiedzialności biznesu. Analiza wykazała istotną rolę importu kakao z Ghany w jego imporcie ogółem do Polski i przewagę cenową ghańskiego przywozu. Zaobserwowano też silną zależność statystyczną między zużyciem nawozów mineralnych w Ghanie i wielkością plonów kakao. Bardzo duży spadek nawożenia skutkuje ograniczeniem podaży ghańskiego kakao. Dodatkowo proponowane zmiany regulacji mogą ograniczyć podaż kakao i podnieść koszty operacyjne. Może to prowadzić do dalszego wzrostu cen kakao.

Suggested Citation

  • Chmielewski, Łukasz, 2024. "Sytuacja podażowa w sektorze kakao w Ghanie w latach 2016-2022 i jej potencjalny wpływ na import kakao do Polski," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 24(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polpwa:343496
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.343496
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