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Estimating Romania’s potential GDP: a production function and multivariate approach

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  • Georgian Dănuț MIHAI

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

  • Andreea-Mădălina BOZAGIU

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania)

Abstract

This research assesses Romania's potential GDP and its variances employing the production function methodology and a multivariate approach. The Cobb-Douglas function measures potential production by integrating labor, capital, and total factor productivity (TFP), utilizing Kalman filtering for labor and the perpetual inventory approach for capital. TFP trends are derived using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. A multivariate filter enhances potential GDP estimates by correlating output gaps with inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. Bayesian methodologies guarantee reliable parameter estimate. The results indicate cyclical variations, with recessions and crises exerting enduring impacts on potential output. Structural changes and EU entry foster long-term resilience, although inflation and labor dynamics are crucial factors. This work enhances the precision of potential GDP calculation in a growing economy by integrating various estimation methodologies. It presents empirical information regarding the enduring impacts of economic shocks and furnishes insights for policymakers in formulating efficient fiscal and monetary responses to macroeconomic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgian Dănuț MIHAI & Andreea-Mădălina BOZAGIU, 2025. "Estimating Romania’s potential GDP: a production function and multivariate approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(642), S), pages 349-364, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:xxxii:y:2025:i:1(642):p:349-364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
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