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Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes

Author

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  • van den Berg, Gerard J.
  • Weynandt, Michèle A.

Abstract

This paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the SOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Gerard J. & Weynandt, Michèle A., 2013. "Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 133(2), pages 249-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v133_y2013_i2_q2_p249-261
    DOI: 10.3790/schm.133.2.249
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    Cited by:

    1. Dustmann, Christian & Okatenko, Anna, 2014. "Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 52-63.
    2. Kaufmann, Marc & Machado, Joël & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2025. "Why do migrants stay unexpectedly? Misperceptions and implications for integration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    3. Philippe Wanner, 2021. "Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1151-1179, September.
    4. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    5. Eric Schuss, 2016. "Between Life Cycle Model, Labor Market Integration and Discrimination: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Return Migration," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 881, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Schuß, Eric, 2016. "Between Life Cycle Model, Labor Market Integration and Discrimination: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Return Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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