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Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes

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  • van den Berg, Gerard J.
  • Weynandt, Michèle A.

Abstract

This paper explores the difference between intentions and realizations in return migration with the help of a duration model. Using the SOEP the results lend support to the fact that people use simplifying heuristics when trying to forecast the future; their return intentions indicate bunching in heaps of 5 years. Along these lines we find that migrated individuals systematically underestimate the length of their stay in the receiving country. We find that the difference decreases the older one gets, but is larger the more disadvantaged one feels due to ones origin as an example. The robustness checks show that the results do not hinge on a single definition, or set of explaining variables. The consistency in the underestimation may have important policy and modeling implications.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Gerard J. & Weynandt, Michèle A., 2013. "Explaining Differences Between the Expected and Actual Duration Until Return Migration: Economic Changes," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 133(2), pages 249-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v133_y2013_i2_q2_p249-261
    DOI: 10.3790/schm.133.2.249
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    1. David Card & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2012. "Immigration, Wages, And Compositional Amenities," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 78-119, February.
    2. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    4. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
    5. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Christian Dustmann, 2003. "Children and return migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 815-830, November.
    8. George J. Borjas, 1991. "Immigration and Self-Selection," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market, pages 29-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dustmann, Christian & Okatenko, Anna, 2014. "Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 52-63.
    2. Kaufmann, Marc & Machado, Joël & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2021. "Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration," IZA Discussion Papers 14155, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Philippe Wanner, 2021. "Can Migrants’ Emigration Intentions Predict Their Actual Behaviors? Evidence from a Swiss Survey," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1151-1179, September.
    4. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    5. Eric Schuss, 2016. "Between Life Cycle Model, Labor Market Integration and Discrimination: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Return Migration," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 881, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Schuß, Eric, 2016. "Between Life Cycle Model, Labor Market Integration and Discrimination: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Return Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Teichert, Christian & Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Otto, Anne & Rossen, Anja, 2018. "Graduate migration in Germany - new evidence from an event history analysis," IAB-Discussion Paper 201803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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