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Explaining the Evolution of Passenger Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States

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  • Benjamin Leard, Joshua Linn, and Clayton Munnings

Abstract

After growing steadily for several decades, passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the United States unexpectedly leveled off in the 2000s. The growth rate of VMT has since rebounded, and determining the factors that explain these developments has implications for future U.S. oil consumption and vehicle pollution. We show that changes in the demographics and economic characteristics of households in the United States, rather than in driving habits, explain most of the recent dynamics. This suggests that over the next decade, VMT in the United States will continue to grow roughly at historical rates, causing substantially higher oil consumption and pollution than if persistent changes in driving habits explained the recent changes in VMT. The projected VMT growth will raise the cost of meeting energy security, climate, and local air quality objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Leard, Joshua Linn, and Clayton Munnings, 2019. "Explaining the Evolution of Passenger Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej40-1-linn
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher R. Knittel & Elizabeth Murphy, 2019. "Generational Trends in Vehicle Ownership and Use: Are Millennials Any Different?," NBER Working Papers 25674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Leard, Benjamin & Xing, Jianwei, 2020. "What Does Ridesharing Replace?," RFF Working Paper Series 20-03, Resources for the Future.
    3. Dowds, Jonathan & Howerter, Sarah & Hines, Paul & Aultman-Hall, Lisa, 2024. "Integrated Modeling of Electric Vehicle Energy Demand and Regional Electricity Generation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9nv8z4kc, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. Linn, Joshua & Liang, Jing & Qiu, Yueming, 2022. "Rising US Income Inequality and Declining Residential Electricity Consumption: Is There a Link?," RFF Working Paper Series 22-09, Resources for the Future.
    5. Carvallo, Juan Pablo & Murphy, Sean P. & Stuart, Elizabeth & Larsen, Peter H. & Goldman, Charles, 2019. "Evaluating project level investment trends for the U.S. ESCO industry: 1990–2017," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 139-161.
    6. Naroa Coretti Sanchez & Luis Alonso Pastor & Kent Larson, 2022. "Can autonomy make bicycle-sharing systems more sustainable? Environmental impact analysis of an emerging mobility technology," Papers 2202.12405, arXiv.org.
    7. Nicholas Rivers, Randall Wigle, 2018. "An evaluation of policy options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector: The cost-effectiveness of regulations versus emissions pricing," LCERPA Working Papers 0107, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Jan 2018.
    8. A. Wren Montgomery & Kimberly S. Wolske & Thomas P. Lyon, 2021. "The Millennial ‘Meh’: Correlated Groups as Collective Agents in the Automobile Field," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 673-717, May.
    9. Srinivasa Raghavan, Seshadri, 2020. "Behavioral Realism of Plug-In Electric Vehicle Usage: Implications for Emission Benefits, Energy Consumption, and Policies," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1rz000pf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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