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Nuclear Phase-out Under Stringent Climate Policies: A Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis

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  • Lucas Bretschger and Lin Zhang

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the long-run economic consequences of phasing out nuclear energy in the presence of stringent climate policies. We integrate endogenous growth theory and technology-based activity analysis into a dynamic numerical general equilibrium model. Both market-based and policy-mandated nuclear phase-out are studied. Using data from the Swiss economy we find that the aggregate welfare loss of carbon policy is as large as 1.21% and that nuclear phase-out raises the loss to 1.58%. Nuclear phase-out has no significant effect on economic growth. Increased investment, induced innovation, and sectoral change are the reasons that the economic impact of nuclear phase-out and the trade-off between energy and climate policy are moderate, once the dynamics of an economy are taken into account. Optimal phase-out time for nuclear depends mainly on future cost escalation in the energy sector.

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  • Lucas Bretschger and Lin Zhang, 2017. "Nuclear Phase-out Under Stringent Climate Policies: A Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej38-1-linzhang
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    1. Gerlagh, Reyer & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2003. "Gross world product and consumption in a global warming model with endogenous technological change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-57, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chen, Hsing Hung, 2018. "The contagious effects on economic development after resuming construction policy for nuclear power plants in Coastal China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 291-302.
    2. Cámara, Ángeles & Martínez, M.ª Isabel & Rodríguez, Leila, 2018. "El impacto económico del desmantelamiento nuclear en España || The Economic Impact of Nuclear Dismantlement in Spain," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 25(1), pages 244-271, Junio.
    3. Hana Kim & Eui-Chan Jeon, 2020. "Structural Changes to Nuclear Energy Industries and the Economic Effects Resulting from Energy Transition Policies in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Kan, Xiaoming & Hedenus, Fredrik & Reichenberg, Lina, 2020. "The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Rausch, Sebastian & Zhang, Da, 2018. "Capturing natural resource heterogeneity in top-down energy-economic equilibrium models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 917-926.
    6. Karydas, Christos & Zhang, Lin, 2019. "Green tax reform, endogenous innovation and the growth dividend," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 158-181.
    7. Alena Miftakhova & Clément Renoir, 2021. "Economic Growth and Equity in Anticipation of Climate Policy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/355, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    8. Lucas Bretschger & Matthias Leuthard & Alena Miftakhova, 2024. "Boosting Sluggish Climate Policy: Endogenous Substitution, Learning, and Energy Efficiency Improvements," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 24/391, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. Panos, Evangelos & Kober, Tom & Wokaun, Alexander, 2019. "Long term evaluation of electric storage technologies vs alternative flexibility options for the Swiss energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Sophie Maire & Philippe Thalmann & Frank Vöhringer, 2019. "Welfare effects of technology-based climate policies in liberalized electricity markets: seeing beyond total system cost," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Florian Landis & Adriana Marcucci & Sebastian Rausch & Ramachandran Kannan & Lucas Bretschger, 2019. "Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Adriana Marcucci & Lin Zhang, 2019. "Growth impacts of Swiss steering-based climate policies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-13, December.

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