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Analysis of Post-Kyoto Scenarios: The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model


  • Mikiko Kainuma
  • Yuzuru Matsuoka
  • Tsuneyuki Morita


The AIM/top-down model is a recursive general equilibrium model used to analyze the post-Kyoto scenarios presented by EMF16. Differences among scenarios mainly arise from the setting of emission trading. Japan's marginal cost is the highest among the Annex I countries except New Zealand, where a relatively high emission reduction is necessary, while the highest GDP loss Is observed in the USA in 2010 in the no trading case. The marginal costs are much less in the global trading case. The countries of the former Soviet Union sell emission rights and the USA buys the largest amount of them. Emission reductions by trading will account for a large part of the total emission reductions if there is no restriction on trading. The GDP gain of the former Soviet Union is the largest in 2010 in the trading cases. The GDP change in Middle East Asia is negative, and reaches the highest level in the no trading case. Carbon leakage is particularly observed in the no trading case.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikiko Kainuma & Yuzuru Matsuoka & Tsuneyuki Morita, 1999. "Analysis of Post-Kyoto Scenarios: The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 207-220.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1999si-a09

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "To Slow or Not to Slow: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 920-937, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Springer, Urs, 2003. "The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol: a survey of model studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 527-551, September.
    2. Kainuma, Mikiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru & Morita, Tsuneyuki & Masui, Toshihiko & Takahashi, Kiyoshi, 2004. "Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios: the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 709-719, July.
    3. Kenichi Matsumoto, "undated". "Multi-Agent Model to Analyze CO2 Emissions Trading," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000037, EcoMod.
    4. Tsung-Chen Lee & Hsiao-Chi Chen & Shi-Miin Liu, 2013. "Optimal strategic regulations in international emissions trading under imperfect competition," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(1), pages 39-57, January.
    5. Bergman, Lars, 2005. "CGE Modeling of Environmental Policy and Resource Management," Handbook of Environmental Economics,in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1273-1306 Elsevier.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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