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OECD Oil Demand Dynamics: Trends and Asymmetries

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  • William W. Hogan

Abstract

Oil market data of the 1980s reject a simple, symmetric reduced-form model of dynamic oil demand in the OECD countries. Tests of price asymmetric long-run demand models produce ambiguous results. The pooled time series estimations find near unitary output elasticities, and reject linear demand models in favor of constant elasticity formulations. Despite large differences in product prices and crude prices, the data cannot reject use of a crude price model fir aggregate oil demand. A reduced-form model symmetric in product prices but with technology trends for non-price oil conservation compares favorably with other formulations, and provides slightly lower projections of future oil demand intensity. However, even these lower econometric projections imply substantial increases in aggregate oil demand, increases which exceed those found in the conventional judgmental estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • William W. Hogan, 1993. "OECD Oil Demand Dynamics: Trends and Asymmetries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 125-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1993v14-01-a06
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    Cited by:

    1. Jobling, Andrew & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Price volatility and demand for oil: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 96-113.
    2. repec:zbw:rwirep:0276 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Manuel Frondel and Colin Vance, 2013. "Re-Identifying the Rebound: What About Asymmetry?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    4. Elodie Sentenac-Chemin, 2009. "Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric ? Some evidence from an empirical study," Working Papers hal-02469516, HAL.
    5. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1995. "The imperfect price reversibility of non-transport oil demand in the OECD," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 59-71, January.
    6. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2011. "Re-Identifying the Rebound – What About Asymmetry?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0276, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Sentenac-Chemin, Elodie, 2012. "Is the price effect on fuel consumption symmetric? Some evidence from an empirical study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 59-65.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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