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Undisclosed Debt Sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro
  • Fabio Kanczuk

Abstract

Over the past decade, non-Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have no information about their magnitude. We transform the traditional sovereign debt and default model to quantitatively study incomplete information arrangements and find that they greatly reduce traditional Paris Club creditors' debt sustainability. Disclosure of nontraditional debt would imply significant welfare gains for the recipient countries but would reduce its sustainability. We discuss the implications of nontraditional lending on standard assumptions of sovereign debt models.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2022. "Undisclosed Debt Sustainability," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 521-525, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:521-25
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20221000
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mary Everett & Vahagn Galstyan, 2020. "Bilateral cross-border banking and macroeconomic determinants," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 921-944, November.
    2. Kubota,Megumi & Zeufack,Albert G., 2020. "Assessing the Returns on Investment in Data Openness and Transparency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9139, The World Bank.
    3. Horn, Sebastian & Mihalyi, David & Nickol, Philipp & Sosa Padilla, César, 2024. "Hidden debt revelations," Ruhr Economic Papers 1101, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Guler, Bulent & Önder, Yasin Kürşat & Taskin, Temel, 2025. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Kathleen J. Brown, 2025. "Why hide? Africa’s unreported debt to China," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-32, March.
    7. Gelpern, Anna & Haddad, Omar & Horn, Sebastian & Kintzinger, Paulina & Parks, Bradley & Trebesch, Christoph, 2025. "How China collateralizes," Kiel Working Papers 2293, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    8. Megumi Kubota, 2025. "Boosting Data Transparency : A Shared Incentive for Borrowers and Investors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11054, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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