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The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk

Author

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  • Charles I. Jones

Abstract

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they may increase economic growth as AI augments our ability to innovate. On the other hand, many experts worry that these advances entail existential risk: creating a superintelligence misaligned with human values could lead to catastrophic outcomes, even possibly human extinction. This paper considers the optimal use of AI technology in the presence of these opportunities and risks. Under what conditions should we continue the rapid progress of AI, and under what conditions should we stop?

Suggested Citation

  • Charles I. Jones, 2024. "The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 575-590, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:6:y:2024:i:4:p:575-90
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20230570
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongheng Hu, 2025. "Heterogeneous Agents in the Data Economy," Papers 2509.09656, arXiv.org.
    2. Adams, Jonathan J. & Fang, Min & Liu, Zheng & Wang, Yajie, 2026. "The rise of AI pricing: Trends, driving forces, and implications for firm performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Sandrini, Luca & Somogyi, Robert, 2023. "Generative AI and deceptive news consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    4. Gans, Joshua S., 2025. "Regulating the direction of innovation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    5. Jakub Growiec & Klaus Prettner, 2025. "The Paradox of Doom: Acknowledging Extinction Risk Reduces the Incentive to Prevent It," Papers 2509.04855, arXiv.org.
    6. Keh-Kuan Sun, 2026. "When AI Improves Answers but Slows Knowledge Creation: Matching and Dynamic Knowledge Creation in Digital Public Goods," Papers 2604.00468, arXiv.org.
    7. Jakub Growiec, 2025. "GNPJE Special Issue on Economic Impacts of Generative AI," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-5.
    8. Growiec, Jakub & Prettner, Klaus, 2025. "The Economics of p(doom) : Scenarios of Existential Risk and Economic Growth in the Age of Transformative AI," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 378, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    9. Yongheng Hu, 2025. "How Big Data Dilutes Cognitive Resources, Interferes with Rational Decision-making and Affects Wealth Distribution ?," Papers 2508.20435, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    10. Henry A. Thompson, 2025. "Some economics of artificial super intelligence," Papers 2511.06613, arXiv.org.
    11. Joshua S. Gans, 2025. "Can Socially Minded Governance Control the Artificial General Intelligence Beast?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(10), pages 8188-8199, October.
    12. Anton Korinek & Lee M. Lockwood, 2026. "Public Finance in the Age of AI: A Primer," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Christian Catalini & Xiang Hui & Jane Wu, 2026. "Some Simple Economics of AGI," Papers 2602.20946, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    14. Yongheng Hu, 2025. "The Nexus between Dataization and Technological Progress in General Equilibrium of Macroeconomics," Papers 2507.13274, arXiv.org, revised May 2026.
    15. Hou, Yao & Huang, Jinglei & Xie, Danxia & Zhou, Weidi, 2025. "The limits to growth in the AI-driven economy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PA).
    16. repec:ces:ceswps:_12072 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Florian Mudekereza, 2025. "Robust Aggregation of Preferences," Papers 2504.07401, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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