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Can Forward Commodity Markets Improve Spot Market Performance? Evidence from Wholesale Electricity

Author

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  • Akshaya Jha
  • Frank A. Wolak

Abstract

Forward markets are believed to aggregate information about future spot prices and reduce the cost of producing the commodity. We develop a measure of the extent to which forward and spot prices agree in markets with transaction costs. Using this measure, we show that day-ahead prices better reflect real-time prices at all locations in California's electricity market after the introduction of financial trading. We then present evidence suggesting that operating costs and input fuel use fell after the introduction of financial trading on days when the nonconvexities inherent to the production and transmission of electricity are especially relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Akshaya Jha & Frank A. Wolak, 2023. "Can Forward Commodity Markets Improve Spot Market Performance? Evidence from Wholesale Electricity," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 292-330, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:292-330
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20200234
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mats Kröger & Karsten Neuhoff & Sebastian Schwenen, 2025. "Contracts in Crisis: The War in Ukraine and Long-Term Contracts in Energy Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2118, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Sebastian Schwenen & Karsten Neuhoff, 2024. "Renewable Energy and Equilibrium Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(5), pages 105-123, September.
    3. Thomas Hubner & Gabriela Hug, 2025. "Package Bids in Combinatorial Electricity Auctions: Selection, Welfare Losses, and Alternatives," Papers 2502.09420, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    4. David P. Brown & Derek E. H. Olmstead & Blake Shaffer, 2024. "Electricity Market Design with Increasing Renewable Generation: Lessons From Alberta," Working Papers 2024-03, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    5. Cramton, Peter & Bohlin, Erik & Brandkamp, Simon & Dark, Jason & Hoy, Darrell & Kyle, Albert S. & Malec, David & Ockenfels, Axel & Wilkens, Chris, 2024. "An open-access market for global communications," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9).
    6. Katzen, Matthew & Leslie, Gordon W., 2024. "Siting and operating incentives in electrical networks: A study of mispricing in zonal markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Blake Shaffer & Frank A. Wolak, 2024. "Market Design for the 21st Century: Recommendations for Alberta’s Power Market," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 17(02), February.
    8. Gallego, Camilo A., 2025. "Economic effects in wholesale electricity markets from endogenous long-term forward contracts indexed to spot conditions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Agostino Capponi & Garud Iyengar & Bo Yang & Daniel Bienstock, 2025. "Virtual Trading in Multi-Settlement Electricity Markets," Papers 2508.11979, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D23 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Organizational Behavior; Transaction Costs; Property Rights
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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