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The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates

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  • Peek, Joe
  • Wilcox, James A

Abstract

This article demonstrates why the procedures used in previous studies do not permit inference about the relationship between interestrates and taxes. We present a model that leads to direct estimates of the degree to which interest rates respond to changes in tax rates. The empirical results imply that the adjustment of taxable interest rates has been large enough to render after-tax yields impervious to tax rate changes. Further, tax-exempt yields are unaffected by changes in taxrates. Thus, there is no evidence of fiscal illusion in interest rates.
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Suggested Citation

  • Peek, Joe & Wilcox, James A, 1984. "The Degree of Fiscal Illusion in Interest Rates: Some Direct Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1061-1066, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:74:y:1984:i:5:p:1061-66
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    Cited by:

    1. Douglas Dacy & Fuad Hasanov, 2005. "The Rate of Interest or the Rate of Return: Estimating Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," Macroeconomics 0510012, EconWPA.
    2. Hendershott, Patric H & Peek, Joe, 1992. "Treasury Bill Rates in the 1970s and 1980s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 195-214, May.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi & Joseph E. Gagnon, 1992. "Taxation and inflation: a new explanation for current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 420, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Bayoumi, Tamim & Gagnon, Joseph, 1996. "Taxation and inflation: A new explanation for capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 303-330, October.
    5. Patric H. Hendershott, 1985. "Tax reform and financial markets," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 29, pages 153-186.
    6. de Bartolome, Charles A. M., 1995. "Which tax rate do people use: Average or marginal?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 79-96, January.
    7. Sterman, John., 1986. "Expectation formation in behavioral simulation models," Working papers 1826-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.

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