IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/abq/ijist1/v5y2023i4p440-460.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

EvaluatingFuture Climate Projections in Upper Indus Basin through GFDL-ESM2M Model

Author

Listed:
  • Faiza Sarwar

    (Institute of Geography, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan)

Abstract

This study aimsto examine the future climate projections in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The Global Climate Model (GFDL-ESM2M) data was utilized to analyze two variables, namely precipitation and temperatures. The study focused on three distinct time periods: near century (2020-2040), mid-century (2041-2070), and end of century (2071-2099). This process involved the utilization of a downscaling technique that relied on the RCP4.5 scenario. The Mann-Kendall (MK)and Sen's slope estimate test will be employed to analyze the parameters of temperature and precipitation, enabling the identification of yearly, seasonal, and monthly patterns. The application of the MKand Sen's slope estimate approaches revealed a lack of statistical significance in the observed upward trend in yearly precipitation and temperature. Over the course of nearly a century, the average Coefficient of Variation for temperature exhibited a range of -67.5% to 308.9%. During the midcentury period, there was observed variation in the mean monthly rainfall across all months. Notably, the month of March exhibited the highest average rainfall of 274.2mm, while September had the lowest average rainfall of 31.9mm. The data exhibited a positive skewness, suggesting that there was a tendency for higher levels of rainfall towards the end of each month compared to the beginning. The data indicates that there is an upward trend in precipitation throughout the midcentury period in comparison to the near century, but a downward trend is observed towards the conclusion ofthe century. The temperature readings exhibit a constant upward trend from the early part of the century to the middle of the century, followed by a subsequent increase from the middle of the century to the end of the century. Furthermore, the data revealedthat the highest amount of precipitation is experienced during the spring season, whereas the lowest amount of rainfall is recorded during autumn throughout all temporal intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Faiza Sarwar, 2023. "EvaluatingFuture Climate Projections in Upper Indus Basin through GFDL-ESM2M Model," International Journal of Innovations in Science & Technology, 50sea, vol. 5(4), pages 440-460, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:abq:ijist1:v:5:y:2023:i:4:p:440-460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journal.50sea.com/index.php/IJIST/article/view/553/1084
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journal.50sea.com/index.php/IJIST/article/view/553
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:plo:pone00:0165630 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Chris Huntingford & Philip D. Jones & Valerie N. Livina & Timothy M. Lenton & Peter M. Cox, 2013. "No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 500(7462), pages 327-330, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M.O. Molina & PMM. Soares & MM. Lima & T. H. Gaspar & DCA. Lima & A. M. Ramos & A. Russo & R. M. Trigo, 2025. "Updated insights on climate change-driven temperature variability across historical and future periods," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Patel, Pralit & Abigail, Snyder & Wise, Marshall & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James, 2021. "Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets," Conference papers 333245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Virginia Anne Kowal & Julian Ahlborn & Chantsallkham Jamsranjav & Otgonsuren Avirmed & Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, 2021. "Modeling Integrated Impacts of Climate Change and Grazing on Mongolia’s Rangelands," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Rudik, Ivan & Lyn, Gary & Tan, Weiliang & Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Market Adaptation to Climate Change in Dynamic-Spatial Equilibrium," SocArXiv usghb, Center for Open Science.
    5. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Dirk Olonscheck & Andrew P. Schurer & Lucie Lücke & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2021. "Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Malanson, George P. & DeRose, R. Justin & Bekker, Matthew F., 2019. "Individual variation and ecotypic niches in simulations of the impact of climatic volatility," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    8. Kuo-Wei Lan & Ming-An Lee & Chang Zhang & Pei-Yuan Wang & Long-Jing Wu & Kuo-Tien Lee, 2014. "Effects of climate variability and climate change on the fishing conditions for grey mullet (Mugil cephalus L.) in the Taiwan Strait," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 189-202, September.
    9. Claudia Simolo & Susanna Corti, 2022. "Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Flavio Lehner & Clara Deser & Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2018. "Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 363-375, February.
    11. Isabel Hovdahl, 2020. "Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality," Working Papers No 01/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. Torbjørn Lorentzen, 2020. "Climate change and winter road maintenance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 225-242, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abq:ijist1:v:5:y:2023:i:4:p:440-460. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iqra Nazeer (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.