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The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction
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Cited by:
- Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2016.
"Spikes and crashes in the oil market,"
Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 615-623.
- Sofiane Aboura & Julien Chevallier, 2016. "Spikes and crashes in the oil market," Post-Print halshs-01348711, HAL.
- Kaizoji, Taisei & Leiss, Matthias & Saichev, Alexander & Sornette, Didier, 2015.
"Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of fundamentalist and chartist traders,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 289-310.
- Taisei KAIZOJI & Matthias LEISS & Alexander I. SAICHEV & Didier SORNETTE, 2015. "Super-Exponential Endogenous Bubbles in an Equilibrium Model of Fundamentalist and Chartist Traders," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-07, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Li, Chong, 2017. "Log-periodic view on critical dates of the Chinese stock market bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 305-311.
- Yue-Hua Dai & Wen-Jie Xie & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & George J. Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016.
"Correlation structure and principal components in the global crude oil market,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1501-1519, December.
- Yue-Hua Dai & Wen-Jie Xie & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & George J. Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2014. "Correlation structure and principal components in global crude oil market," Papers 1405.5000, arXiv.org.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010.
"Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, "undated". "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
- Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016.
"Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask," MPRA Paper 71946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2014.
"Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 235-244.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wen-Jie Xie & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2012. "Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market," Papers 1211.4686, arXiv.org.
- D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
- Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Kearney, Fearghal, 2016.
"Oil market modelling: A comparative analysis of fundamental and latent factor approaches,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 211-218.
- Mark Cummins & Michael Dowling & Fearghal Kearney, 2016. "Oil market modelling: A comparative analysis of fundamental and latent factor approaches," Post-Print hal-01387596, HAL.
- Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012.
"Leverage bubble,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 180-186.
- Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Leverage Bubble," Papers 1011.0458, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
- Hüsler, A. & Sornette, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2013.
"Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: Evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 304-316.
- Andreas Husler & Didier Sornette & Cars H. Hommes, 2012. "Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price," Papers 1205.0635, arXiv.org.
- Andreas D. Huesler & Didier Sornette & C. H. Hommes, 2012. "Super-Exponential Bubbles in Lab Experiments: Evidence for Anchoring Over-Optimistic Expectations on Price," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-20, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Giulio Cifarelli and Paolo Paesani, 2021.
"Navigating the Oil Bubble: A Non-linear Heterogeneous-agent Dynamic Model of Futures Oil Pricing,"
The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
- Cifarelli, Giulio & Paesani, Paolo, 2018. "Navigating the oil bubble: A non-linear heterogeneous-agent dynamic model of futures oil pricing," MPRA Paper 90470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alexey Fomin & Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2016. "Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics," Papers 1601.04341, arXiv.org.
- Benoît Guilleminot & Jean-Jacques Ohana & Steve Ohana, 2014. "The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 767-792, November.
- Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
- da Fonseca, Eder Lucio & Ferreira, Fernando F. & Muruganandam, Paulsamy & Cerdeira, Hilda A., 2013. "Identifying financial crises in real time," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1386-1392.
- Wanfeng Yan & Edgar van Tuyll van Serooskerken, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
- Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between the crude oil spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 723-733.
- Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 518-525.
- Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013.
"Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Geraskin, Petr, 2011. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Log Periodic Power Laws for Bubble Modelling but Were Afraid to Ask," MPRA Paper 47869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kyrtsou, Catherine & Mikropoulou, Christina & Papana, Angeliki, 2016. "Does the S&P500 index lead the crude oil dynamics? A complexity-based approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 239-246.
- Gajic, Nenad & Budinski-Petkovic, Ljuba, 2013. "Ups and downs of economics and econophysics — Facebook forecast," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 208-214.
- Liu, Tie-Ying & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2018. "Will the energy price bubble burst?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 276-288.
- Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
- Gharib, Cheima & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Serret, Vanessa & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil prices: Evidence from Econophysics approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
- Lammerding, Marc & Stephan, Patrick & Trede, Mark & Wilfling, Bernd, 2013.
"Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 491-502.
- Marc Lammerding & Patrick Stephan & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2012. "Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach," CQE Working Papers 2312, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
- Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016.
"LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
- Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zeynel A. Ozdemir & Hakan Yetkiner, 2016. "LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 201606, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
- Zhou, Wei & Huang, Yang & Chen, Jin, 2018. "The bubble and anti-bubble risk resistance analysis on the metal futures in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 947-957.
- Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Linn, Scott C. & Zhu, Zhen, 2014. "The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting log-periodic power law structures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 427-449.
- D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
- Kisswani, Khalid M. & Nusair, Salah A., 2013.
"Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 341-353.
- Kisswani, Khalid /M. & Nusair, Salah /A., 2012. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," MPRA Paper 36586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2010. "Auto-correlated behavior of WTI crude oil volatilities: A multiscale perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(24), pages 5759-5768.
- García-Carranco, Sergio M. & Bory-Reyes, Juan & Balankin, Alexander S., 2016. "The crude oil price bubbling and universal scaling dynamics of price volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 452(C), pages 60-68.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018.
"Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Papers 1610.08230, arXiv.org.
- Coleman, Les, 2012. "Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 318-324.
- Xing, Dun-Zhong & Li, Hai-Feng & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Long, Chao, 2021. "Forecasting price of financial market crash via a new nonlinear potential GARCH model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
- Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017.
"Measuring uncertainty in the stock market,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
- Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "“Measuaring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”," IREA Working Papers 201524, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2015.
- Xiong, Jinwu & Liu, Qing & Zhao, Lei, 2020. "A new method to verify Bitcoin bubbles: Based on the production cost," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
- Vakhtina, Elena & Wosnitza, Jan Henrik, 2015. "Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 304-320.
- Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
- Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
- Ellen, Saskia ter & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Oil price dynamics: A behavioral finance approach with heterogeneous agents," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1427-1434, November.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jing, 2015. "Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 377-387.
- Ulusoy, Tolga & Keskin, Mustafa & Shirvani, Ayoub & Deviren, Bayram & Kantar, Ersin & Çaǧrı Dönmez, Cem, 2012. "Complexity of major UK companies between 2006 and 2010: Hierarchical structure method approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(21), pages 5121-5131.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
- Cifarelli, Giulio, 2013. "Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 160-167.
- Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Liu, Zhi-ying & Huang, Wei-qiang, 2014. "Analysis of the temporal properties of price shock sequences in crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 235-246.
- Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Price relationships in crude oil futures: new evidence from CFTC disaggregated data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 15(2), pages 133-170, April.
- Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
- Hervé OTT, 2012. "Fertilizer markets and its interplay with commodity and food prices," JRC Research Reports JRC73043, Joint Research Centre.
- Chen, Ting-Ting & Zheng, Bo & Li, Yan & Jiang, Xiong-Fei, 2018. "Information driving force and its application in agent-based modeling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 496(C), pages 593-601.
- Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
- Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014.
"Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
- Vladimir Filimonov & David Bicchetti & Nicolas Maystre, 2013. "Quantification of the High Level of Endogeneity and of Structural Regime Shifts in Commodity Markets," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 212, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.