Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Quantification of the High Level of Endogeneity and of Structural Regime Shifts in Commodity Markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Vladimir Filimonov
  • David Bicchetti
  • Nicolas Maystre

Abstract

We propose a “reflexivity” index that quantifies the relative importance of short-term endogeneity/reflexivity for several commodity futures markets (corn, oil, soybeans, sugar, and wheat) and a benchmark equity futures market (E-mini S&P 500). Our reflexivity index is defined as the average ratio of the number of price moves that are due to endogenous interactions to the total number of all price changes, which also include exogenous events. Estimated reflexivity levels are obtained by calibrating the Hawkes self-excited conditional Poisson model on time series of price changes. The Hawkes model accounts simultaneously for the co-existence and interplay between the exogenous impact of news and the endogenous mechanism by which past price changes may influence future price changes. Our robustness tests show that our index provides a ‘pure’ measure of endogeneity that is independent of the rate of activity, order size, volume or volatility. We find an overall increase of the reflexivity index since the middle of the first decade of the 21st century to October 2012, which implies that, on a monthly basis, at least 60–70 per cent of commodity price changes are now due to self-generated activities rather than novel information, compared to 20–30 per cent earlier. While our reflexivity index is defined on short-time windows (10 minutes) and thus does not capture long-term memory, we discover striking coincidence between its dynamics and that of the price hikes and abrupt falls that developed since 2006 and culminated in early 2009.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/osgdp20132_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its series UNCTAD Discussion Papers with number 212.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:212

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Palais des Nations, CH - 1211 Geneva 10
Phone: +41 22 907 12 34
Fax: +41 22 907 00 43
Email:
Web page: http://www.unctad.org/Templates/Page.asp?intItemID=2101&lang=1
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas, 2012. "The synchronized and long-lasting structural change on commodity markets: evidence from high frequency data," MPRA Paper 37486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Robert F. Engle, 1996. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 5816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Martina Metzger, 2008. "Regional Cooperation And Integration In Sub-Saharan Africa," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 189, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  4. Robert Rowthorn & Ken Coutts, 2004. "De-Industrialization And The Blance Of Payments In Advanced Economies," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 170, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  5. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2002-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2010. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles during the Subprime Crisis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1770, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
  9. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
  10. V. Chavez-Demoulin & A. C. Davison & A. J. McNeil, 2005. "Estimating value-at-risk: a point process approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 227-234.
  11. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
  12. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  14. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  15. Manuel Agosin & Roberto Machado, 2005. "Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 149-162.
  16. Heiner FLASSBECK, 2002. "The Exchange Rate: Economic Policy Tool Or Market Price?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 157, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  17. Marwan Elkhoury, 2007. "Credit Rating Agencies And Their Potential Impact On Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 186, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  18. Lucas Assuncao & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2002. "Domestics Climate Change Policies And The Wto," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 164, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  19. Engle, Robert F. & Russell, Jeffrey R., 1997. "Forecasting the frequency of changes in quoted foreign exchange prices with the autoregressive conditional duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 187-212, June.
  20. Large, Jeremy, 2007. "Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, February.
  21. Michael Geiger, 2008. "Instruments Of Monetary Policy In China And Their Effectiveness: 1994–2006," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 187, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  22. Hess, Dieter E. & Huang, He & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," CFR Working Papers 08-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  23. Dietrich Domanski & Alexandra Heath, 2007. "Financial investors and commodity markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  24. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
  25. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  26. Alberto GABRIELE, 2001. "Science And Technology Policies, Industrial Reform And Technical Progress In China. Can Socialist Property Rights Be Compatible With Technological Catching Up?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 155, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  27. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  28. Alberto Gabriele, 2004. "Policy Alternatives In Reforming Power Utilities In Developing Countries: A Critical Survey," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 168, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  29. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  30. Dieter Hess & He Huang & Alexandra Niessen, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 127-146, June.
  31. Yuefen Li, 2003. "China´S Accession To Wto: Exaggerated Fears?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 165, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  32. B. Andersen, & Z. Kozul-Wright & R. Kozul-Wright, 2000. "Copyrights, Competition And Development: The Case Of The Music Industry," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 145, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  33. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  34. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
  35. Elder, John & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2012. "Impact of macroeconomic news on metal futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 51-65.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rachid Bouhia).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.