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Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets

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Cited by:

  1. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
  2. Hervé Ott, 2014. "Extent and possible causes of intrayear agricultural commodity price volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(2), pages 225-252, March.
  3. Sun, Yiqun & Ji, Hao & Cai, Xiurong & Li, Jiangchen, 2023. "Joint extreme risk of energy prices-evidence from European energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  4. William Arrata & Alejandro Bernales & Virginie Coudert, 2013. "The effects of Derivatives on Underlying Financial Markets: Equity Options, Commodity Futures and Credit Default Swaps," Post-Print hal-01410748, HAL.
  5. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
  6. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
  7. Kim, Soohyeon & Kim, Jihyo & Heo, Eunnyeong, 2021. "Speculative incentives to hoard aluminum: Relationship between capital gains and inventories," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  8. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2019. "Investment in electricity capacity under fuel cost uncertainty: Dual-fuel and a mix of single-fuel technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 518-532.
  9. Julien Chevallier, 2010. "Modelling the convenience yield in carbon prices using daily and realized measures," Working Papers halshs-00463921, HAL.
  10. Geman, Hélyette & Smith, William O., 2013. "Theory of storage, inventory and volatility in the LME base metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 18-28.
  11. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  12. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  13. Dahlgren, Eric & Leung, Tim, 2015. "An optimal multiple stopping approach to infrastructure investment decisions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 251-267.
  14. Atle Oglend & Vesa-Heikki Soini, 2020. "Equilibrium Working Curves with Heterogeneous Agents," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 355-372, August.
  15. Kim, Soohyeon & Kim, Jihyo & Heo, Eunnyeong, 2017. "Convenience yield of accessible inventories and imports: A case study of the Chinese copper market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 277-283.
  16. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
  17. Niels C. Thygesen & Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma & William R. White & Jakob de Haan & Willem van den End & Jon Frost & Christiaan Pattipeilohy & Mostafa Tabbae & Ernest Gnan & Morten Balling & Paul , 2013. "50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume - 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 1 edited by Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan, March.
  18. Ron Alquist & Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2014. "What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?," Staff Working Papers 14-42, Bank of Canada.
  19. Arismendi, Juan C. & Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Paschke, Raphael & Rudolf, Markus, 2016. "Seasonal Stochastic Volatility: Implications for the pricing of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-65.
  20. Bahattin Buyuksahin, Thomas K. Lee, James T. Moser, and Michel A. Robe, 2013. "Physical Markets, Paper Markets and the WTI-Brent Spread," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  21. Clostermann, Jörg & Keis, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz, 2010. "Short-term oil models before and during the financial market crisis," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 18, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
  22. Benoît Guilleminot & Jean-Jacques Ohana & Steve Ohana, 2014. "The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 767-792, November.
  23. Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Thuy‐Duong Tô, 2016. "The Return–Volatility Relation in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 127-152, February.
  24. Soohyeon Kim & Jungho Baek & Eunnyeong Heo, 2020. "Crude oil inventories: The two faces of Janus?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 1003-1018, August.
  25. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
  26. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
  27. William Arrata & Alejandro Bernales & Virginie Coudert, 2013. "The Effects of Derivatives on Underlying Financial Markets: Equity Options, Commodity Derivatives and Credit Default Swaps," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 13, pages 445-473, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  28. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
  29. Kang, Boda & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2020. "Economic determinants of oil futures volatility: A term structure perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  30. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2017. "Fuel cost uncertainty, capacity investment and price in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 233-240.
  31. Fouquau, Julien & Six, Pierre, 2015. "A comparison of the convenience yield and interest-adjusted basis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 142-149.
  32. Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017. "A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
  33. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2023. "Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
  34. Weerawich Roekchamnong & Pongsa Pornchaiwiseskul & Anant Chiarawongse, 2014. "The Effects of Uncertainties on Inventory Management of Petroleum Products: A Case Study of Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 380-390.
  35. Palzer, Andreas & Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-160.
  36. Kao, Chung-Wei & Wan, Jer-Yuh, 2012. "Price discount, inventories and the distortion of WTI benchmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 117-124.
  37. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Joelle Miffre, 2023. "The Negative Pricing of the May 2020 WTI Contract," Post-Print hal-03933797, HAL.
  38. Niaz Bashiri Behmiri, Maryam Ahmadi, Juha-Pekka Junttila, and Matteo Manera, 2021. "Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  39. Stepanek, Christian & Walter, Matthias & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 395-405.
  40. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  41. Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2021. "Determinants of the WTI‐Brent price spread revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 736-757, May.
  42. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Snowden, Simon & Li, Chuan-Zhong & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "Oil exploration and perceptions of scarcity: The fallacy of early success," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1226-1233.
  43. Rubaszek, Michał & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "The role of underground storage in the dynamics of the US natural gas market: A threshold model analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  44. Oliveira, Sydnei Marssal de & Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira & Cicogna, Maria Paula Vieira, 2018. "Uncertainty effects on production mix and on hedging decisions: The case of Brazilian ethanol and sugar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 516-524.
  45. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Squires, Matthew & Thorp, Susan & Yeung, Danny, 2017. "Determinants of the crude oil futures curve: Inventory, consumption and volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-67.
  46. Omura, Akihiro & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard, 2015. "Convenience yield and inventory accessibility: Impact of regional market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-11.
  47. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
  48. Oglend, Atle & Kleppe, Tore Selland, 2017. "On the behavior of commodity prices when speculative storage is bounded," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 52-69.
  49. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2017. "Turbulent times: Uncovering the origins of US natural gas price fluctuations since deregulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-205.
  50. Adrian, Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria, Fuertes & Joelle, Miffre, 2022. "The Negative Pricing of the May 2020 WTI Contract," MPRA Paper 112352, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Dec 2021.
  51. Michel A. Robe & Jonathan Wallen, 2016. "Fundamentals, Derivatives Market Information and Oil Price Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 317-344, April.
  52. Marek Kwas & Michał Rubaszek, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Looking for a Benchmark," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-13, June.
  53. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
  54. Ohana, Steve, 2010. "Modeling global and local dependence in a pair of commodity forward curves with an application to the US natural gas and heating oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 373-388, March.
  55. Hampf, Benjamin, 2017. "Rational inefficiency, adjustment costs and sequential technologies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(3), pages 1095-1108.
  56. Walid Matar & Saud M. Al-Fattah & Tarek Atallah & Axel Pierru, 2013. "An introduction to oil market volatility analysis," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(3), pages 247-269, September.
  57. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
  58. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  59. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil volatility with exogenous predictors: As good as it GETS?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  60. Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Is investor sentiment stronger than VIX and uncertainty indices in predicting energy volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  61. Loïc Maréchal, 2021. "Do economic variables forecast commodity futures volatility?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1735-1774, November.
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